IPEの果樹園2024

今週のReview

11/11-16

*****************************

US大統領選挙 ・・・ドナルド・トランプ ・・・イーロン・マスク ・・・UK労働党政権 ・・・UK保守党党首 ・・・労働組合 ・・・EU改革 ・・・貧困国の債務問題 ・・・バングラデシュ ・・・ベイルート ・・・金融政策、会計 ・・・カマラ・ハリス ・・・イスラエル、イラン ・・・ドル ・・・民主主義 ・・・AI革命 ・・・外交、国際関係、地政学 ・・・ウクライナ、北朝鮮 ・・・フィンランド ・・・US経済 ・・・ドイツ ・・・国の富と貧困 ・・・保護主義、産業政策 ・・・気候変動、ファイナンス ・・・ノルウェー、EV ・・・インド ・・・国連、国際法廷 ・・・トランプ再選 ・・・ナイジェリア ・・・中国のデフレ回避 ・・・日本

Review関連コラム集]

******************************

主要な出典 FP: Foreign Policy, FT: Financial Times, The Guardian, NYT: New York Times, PS: Project Syndicate, VOX: VoxEU.orgそして、The Economist (London)

[これは英文コラムの紹介です.私の関心に従って,www.DeepL.com/Translator(無料版)、Google翻訳を基に修正し、要点を紹介しています.正しい内容は必ず自分で確かめてください.著者と掲載機関の著作権に従います.] 

―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――

 US大統領選挙

The Guardian, Fri 1 Nov 2024

Here’s how the winner of the 2024 US presidential election did it

Jonathan Freedland

FT November 2, 2024

What will happen the day after the US election?

Edward Luce in Washington

FT November 2, 2024

America’s fateful choice between Trump and Harris

PS Nov 1, 2024

Harris or Chaos

Michele Gelfand

NYT Nov. 1, 2024

2024 Is a Fight to Define the Next Political Order

By Ezra Klein

FP November 1, 2024

Why Electoral Violence Starts—and How It Can End

By Robert A. Pape, Dushni Weerakoon, Oliver Stuenkel, Adem Kassie Abebe, and Daniel Finn

FP November 1, 2024

Do U.S. Voters Even Care About Foreign Policy?

By Emma Ashford, a columnist at Foreign Policy and a senior fellow with the Reimagining U.S. Grand Strategy program at the Stimson Center, and Matthew Kroenig, a columnist at Foreign Policy and vice president and senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security.

FP November 1, 2024

Venezuelan Americans Could Be Key Voting Bloc

By Anusha Rathi, an editorial fellow at Foreign Policy.

FP November 1, 2024

The ‘Battle of the Sexes’ Election

By Christina Lu, an energy and environment reporter at Foreign Policy.

FT November 2, 2024

Election anxiety and the problem with polarisation

Julian Baggini

FT November 3, 2024

Whoever wins, America will still need to turn itself around

Rana Foroohar

NYT Nov. 3, 2024

There’s Something Very Different About Harris vs. Trump

By Ezra Klein

NYT Nov. 4, 2024

Every Vote in Every State Matters

By The Editorial Board

NYT Nov. 4, 2024

The Future of the Planet Hangs on This Vote

By Margaret Renkl

The Guardian, Tue 5 Nov 2024

Left, right, Harris, Trump: all prisoners of political nostalgia in an era few understand

Rafael Behr

FT November 6, 2024

We want to show we can stand with someone who votes differently’

Patti Waldmeir

PS Nov 5, 2024

Anders Åslund

Says More…

NYT Nov. 5, 2024

The Hyper-Close House Race That Could Make All the Difference

By Michelle Cottle

NYT Nov. 5, 2024

There Are Battleground States — and Then There’s North Carolina

By Frank Bruni

NYT Nov. 4, 2024

We’ve Been Underestimating the Scale of Women’s Fury

By Michelle Goldberg

―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――

 ドナルド・トランプ

The Guardian, Fri 1 Nov 2024

Trump may become president again – but he’s already a useful idiot to the mega rich

Marina Hyde

FT November 1, 2024

Donald Trump’s trade remedies reflect America’s troubled reality

Robert Lighthizer

FT November 1, 2024

Will Trumpism outlast Trump?

John Burn-Murdoch

NYT Nov. 1, 2024

What I Truly Expect if an Unconstrained Trump Retakes Power

By Michelle Goldberg

NYT Nov. 1, 2024

Donald Trump Is Done With Checks and Balances

By Jamelle Bouie

FP November 1, 2024

Trump’s Abortion Policy Could Go Global

By Jodi Enda, the Washington bureau chief and senior correspondent for The Fuller Project.

FP November 1, 2024

How Latin American Leaders Might Navigate Trump

By Catherine Osborn, the writer of Foreign Policy’s weekly Latin America Brief.

The Guardian, Sat 2 Nov 2024

Donald Trump is a superspreader of a craziness that has split America in two

Simon Tisdall

FT November 2, 2024

We will be living in Trumpland for decades

Janan Ganesh

NYT Nov. 2, 2024

All the Demons Are Here

By Maureen Dowd

NYT Nov. 2, 2024

I’ve Covered Authoritarians Abroad. Now I Fear One at Home.

By Nicholas Kristof

FT November 3, 2024

Why attacking Trump’s character has proved so ineffective

Jemima Kelly

NYT Nov. 3, 2024

Our 61 Focus Groups Make Me Think Trump Has a Good Chance of Winning

By Patrick Healy

NYT Nov. 3, 2024

There Will Always Be a Trump. That’s Only Part of the Problem.

By David French

The Guardian, Mon 4 Nov 2024

What if Trump’s campaign is cover for a slow-motion coup?

Jan-Werner Müller

NYT Nov. 4, 2024

Win or Lose, Trump Has Already Won

By Matthew Schmitz

NYT Nov. 4, 2024

Why Isn’t Trump Running Away With This?

By Matthew Yglesias

The Guardian, Tue 5 Nov 2024

Remember, remember, the fifth of November, when a bad guy tried to blow up a political system

Marina Hyde

NYT Nov. 5, 2024

I’m a Presidential Historian. This Is My Biggest Regret About Trump.

By Jon Meacham

NYT Nov. 5, 2024

Don’t Let Trump Make America Into an Image of Himself

By Jamelle Bouie

NYT Nov. 4, 2024

Why Trump’s Supporters Should Also Be Wary if He Returns to Power

By Paul Krugman

―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――

 イーロン・マスク

PS Nov 1, 2024

Elon Musk Gets Trump’s Economic Plans Partly Right

James K. Galbraith

NYT Oct. 31, 2024

Leopards Are Telling You That They Will Eat YOUR Face

By Paul Krugman

The Guardian, Sat 2 Nov 2024

Can democracy survive now the world’s richest man has it in his sights?

George Monbiot

FP November 4, 2024

The Elon Musk Election

By Rishi Iyengar, a reporter at Foreign Policy.

―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――

 UK労働党政権

The Guardian, Fri 1 Nov 2024

After Reeves’s historic budget, Labour has time to pursue its revolution. What it needs now is public trust

Martin Kettle

FT November 1, 2024

Labour needs to make good on its pro-business promise

Camilla Cavendish

The Guardian, Sat 2 Nov 2024

The Observer view: a bold budget that’s the right response to years of neglect

Observer editorial

FT November 2, 2024

Keir Starmer: Reform is needed to make Britain a great place to do business

Keir Starmer

The Guardian, Sun 3 Nov 2024

Investment drives growth. That’s why gloomy forecasters are so wrong about the budget

Will Hutton

FT November 3, 2024

British farmers have nothing left to give

Tom Bradshaw

FT November 6, 2024

More muddling through won’t deliver the growth Britain craves

Martin Wolf

FT November 6, 2024

British farming needs a clearer future

The Guardian, Wed 6 Nov 2024

Britain cries out for new economics. Labour has given it repackaged Tory ideas

David Edgerton

The Guardian, Thu 7 Nov 2024

Ignore the doom-mongers: the good news on interest rates shows Labour is on the right track

Mohamed El-Erian

―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――

 UK保守党党首

The Guardian, Sun 3 Nov 2024

With Kemi Badenoch as leader, the Tories and Labour are on different political planets

John Harris

The Guardian, Sun 3 Nov 2024

The Guardian view on Kemi Badenoch: a right turn reveals a party still in denial

Editorial

FT November 3, 2024

The Conservatives’ deepening turn to the right

FT November 4, 2024

Without hard thinking on tax and the state, Kemi Badenoch is doomed to fail

Stephen Bush

―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――

 労働組合

The Guardian, Fri 1 Nov 2024

One year on, we know this: Sweden’s trade unions are more than a match for Elon Musk

German Bender

―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――

 EU改革

FT November 2, 2024

Europe can learn fiscal lessons from the UK on how to achieve its goals

Mario Draghi

FP November 4, 2024

Europe Helps Fuel Conflict in Sudan While Shutting Its Victims Out

By Suha Musa, a Sudan and greater Middle East researcher based in New York.

FT November 5, 2024

Europe’s critical infrastructure is becoming dangerously vulnerable

Anders Fogh Rasmussen

The Guardian, Thu 7 Nov 2024

Why Donald Trump’s return is a disaster for Europe

Paul Taylor

FT November 7, 2024

How should Europe build its own Silicon Valley?

Marietje Schaake

PS Nov 7, 2024

How Europe Could Benefit from Trump’s Second Term

Daniel Gros

―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――

 貧困国の債務問題

FT November 1, 2024

Poor nations are choking on debt — we must grasp the solutions

Adam Tooze

―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――

 バングラデシュ

FT November 1, 2024

Bangladesh’s unlikely revolutionaries: an 84-year-old and some students

John Reed in Dhaka

―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――

 ベイルート

FT November 1, 2024

Letter from Beirut: the many questions of war

Kim Ghattas

―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――

 金融政策、会計

FT November 2 2024

Central banks need escape route from cycle of boom and bust

John Plender

FT November 4, 2024

Tensions erupt over US audit quality

Stephen Foley

FT November 7, 2024

Donald Trump’s victory sets up traps for central banks

Chris Giles

―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――

 カマラ・ハリス

PS Nov 1, 2024

Only Harris Will Deliver Shared Prosperity

Simon Johnson

NYT Nov. 2, 2024

Bruce Springsteen Has Done the Impossible

By Mitchell Duneier

FP November 4, 2024

Why Men’s Makeup Matters in Politics

By Derek Guy, a menswear writer with bylines in the New York Times, the Washington Post, and Esquire.

NYT Nov. 5, 2024

I Voted for Harris but Gaza’s Horrors Weigh on My Conscience

By Megan K. Stack

―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――

 イスラエル、イラン

PS Nov 1, 2024

Israel and Iran Are Likely to Escalate

Nouriel Roubini

FP November 6, 2024

As a Lame Duck, Biden Could Become Tougher With Israel

By David E. Rosenberg, the economics editor and a columnist for the English edition of Haaretz and the author of Israel’s Technology Economy.

The Guardian, Thu 7 Nov 2024

While the world’s eyes were elsewhere, Netanyahu fired his defence minister – the consequences will be huge

Alon Pinkas

―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――

 ドル

PS Nov 1, 2024

The Futile Search for a Dollar Rival

Andrés Velasco

FT November 3, 2024

The west must outdo rival efforts to build an alternative financial system

Martin Sandbu

PS Nov 5, 2024

Stablecoins Can Defend the Dollar’s Global Status

Paul Ryan

―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――

 民主主義

PS Nov 1, 2024

Democracy’s Data Paradox

Claire Melamed

FT November 4, 2024

Europe is trapped between technocracy and democracy

Rosa Balfour

PS Nov 4, 2024

When the Left Goes Far Right

Jan-Werner Mueller

FP November 4, 2024

How Technology Ruined Democracy

By Rishi Iyengar, a reporter at Foreign Policy.

FT November 7, 2024

Democrats join 2024’s graveyard of incumbents

John Burn-Murdoch

FT November 7, 2024

Anger is the defining energy of western politics

Robert Shrimsley

PS Nov 7, 2024

The End of US Democracy Was All Too Predictable

Jason Stanley

―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――

 AI革命

PS Nov 1, 2024

Europe’s Existential AI Challenge

Bertrand Badré and Charles Ferguson

FT November 5, 2024

Gorillas, AI and the future of the nature finance market

Jonathan Ledgard

―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――

 外交、国際関係、地政学

FP November 1, 2024

Diplomacy That Goes Bump in the Night

By Megan DuBois, an assistant editor at Foreign Policy.

FT November 2, 2024

How Hollywood ran shy of geopolitics

Gillian Tett

FT November 4, 2024

Trump, Harris and peace in our time

Gideon Rachman

The Guardian, Wed 6 Nov 2024

The shocking US election result will create a new world order – and launch a fresh wave of Trump wannabes

Martin Kettle

FT November 7, 2024

Trump’s new world order

FP November 7, 2024

What Trump’s Win Means for the World

FP November 6, 2024

What Trump’s Win Means for U.S. Foreign Policy

By FP Staff

FP November 7, 2024

Will Trump Pressure Ukraine to Cut a Deal?

By Emma Ashford, a columnist at Foreign Policy and a senior fellow with the Reimagining U.S. Grand Strategy program at the Stimson Center.

FP November 7, 2024

Xi Sends Trump Congratulatory Message

By Lili Pike, a reporter at Foreign Policy.

FP November 7, 2024

What Trump’s Win Will Mean for NATO, Ukraine, Israel, and Iran

By Emma Ashford, a columnist at Foreign Policy and a senior fellow with the Reimagining U.S. Grand Strategy program at the Stimson Center, and Matthew Kroenig, a columnist at Foreign Policy and vice president and senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security.

―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――

 ウクライナ、北朝鮮

The Guardian, Sat 2 Nov 2024

The Observer view on Ukraine: the west must give Zelenskyy free rein now North Korea has joined the war

Observer editorial

FP November 5, 2024

North Korea Joining Russia’s War Is a Sign of Weakness

By Kori Schake, the director of foreign and defense policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute.

FP November 6, 2024

Even Donald Trump Can’t Afford to Lose the Ukraine War

By Luke McGee, an Emmy Award-winning journalist covering European diplomacy.

The Guardian, Thu 7 Nov 2024

The Guardian view on Ukraine after Trump’s victory: bracing for what lies ahead

Editorial

FP November 7, 2024

Ukraine Now Faces a Nuclear Decision

By Casey Michel, head of the Human Rights Foundation's Combating Kleptocracy Program and author of American Kleptocracy: How the U.S. Created the World’s Greatest Money Laundering Scheme in History.

―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――

 メキシコ

FT November 3, 2024

Mexico grapples with its hidden Chinese trade problem

Christine Murray in Mexico City

―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――

 フィンランド

The Guardian, Mon 4 Nov 2024

I moved to Finland believing it was a progressive dream. It hasn’t turned out that way

Mike Watson

―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――

 US経済

FT November 4, 2024

The US economic boom is a mirage

Ruchir Sharma

FT November 5, 2024

Five economic areas the incoming US president needs to tackle

Mohamed El-Erian

―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――

 ドイツ

FT November 4, 2024

The ‘mother-in-law’ of German coalitions

Guy Chazan in Berlin

The Guardian, Tue 5 Nov 2024

As a former East German athlete doped by the state, I see how our past pain is fuelling the far right

Ines Geipel

FT November 5, 2024

Is Germany’s business model broken?

Olaf Storbeck in Frankfurt, Patricia Nilsson in Krefeld and Guy Chazan in Berlin

FT November 8, 2024

A swift election can end Germany’s political paralysis

FT November 7, 2024

The end of Germany’s dysfunctional coalition offers Europe new hope

Ben Hall

―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――

 国の富と貧困

PS Nov 4, 2024

Why Do Countries Prosper?

Antara Haldar

―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――

 保護主義、産業政策

PS Nov 4, 2024

Made in America 2.0

Todd G. Buchholz and Michael Mindlin

FT November 5, 2024

Not every nail needs hammering with trade policy

Minouche Shafik

VoxEU / 5 Nov 2024

Industrial policy: Lessons from shipbuilding

Panle Barwick  Myrto Kalouptsidi  Nahim Bin Zahur

VoxEU / 7 Nov 2024

Joining competition policy with trade and industrial policy: let’s get specific – part 1

Cristina Caffarra

―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――

 気候変動、ファイナンス

PS Nov 4, 2024

The Right Climate Finance for Developing Economies

Hippolyte Fofack

PS Nov 5, 2024

Unleashing Solar Power’s Bright Future

Fatih Birol and Ajay Mathur

PS Nov 7, 2024

Global Freshwater Supplies in the Balance

Mariana Mazzucato and Johan Rockström

―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――

 コンテナ

FT November 5, 2024

Shipping containers are turning Islamabad into ‘Containeristan’

Humza Jilani

―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――

 ノルウェー、EV

FT November 5, 2024

Norway shows just how China has advanced in cars

Richard Milne in Oslo

―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――

 インド

PS Nov 5, 2024

To Prosper, India Must Close Its Gender Employment Gap

Kanika Mahajan

―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――

 国連、国際法廷

FP November 4, 2024

The World Needs a Treaty on Crimes Against Humanity Now

By Agnès Callamard, the secretary general of Amnesty International.

―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――

 トランプ再選

The Guardian, Wed 6 Nov 2024

Why did Trump win, and what comes next? Our panel reacts

Moustafa Bayoumi, Ben Davis, Lloyd Green, Arwa Mahdawi and Bhaskar Sunkara

The Guardian, Wed 6 Nov 2024

I’ve been on the road speaking to the US right. Trump’s victory was not a surprise

Owen Jones

The Guardian, Wed 6 Nov 2024

A peaceful but determined resistance to Trump must start now

Robert Reich

The Guardian, Wed 6 Nov 2024

The thought of a Trump presidency is eating me alive

Francine Prose

The Guardian, Wed 6 Nov 2024

The Guardian view on the return of President Trump: a bleak day for America and the world

Editorial

FT November 7, 2024

Kamala Harris calls Donald Trump to concede US presidential election

Lauren Fedor and James Politi in Washington

FT November 6, 2024

Who will run Donald Trump’s new administration?

Colby Smith, Felicia Schwartz and Lauren Fedor in Washington

FT November 7, 2024

The Democrats threw away a winnable election

Janan Ganesh

FT November 6, 2024

Markets called Trump right — but what do they do now?

Katie Martin

FT November 6, 2024

America wants Trump — no ifs or buts

Edward Luce

PS Nov 6, 2024

How Trump Won

Nina L. Khrushcheva

PS Nov 6, 2024

Trump vs. China, Round Two

Angela Huyue Zhang

PS Nov 6, 2024

How Europe Should Woo Trump

Philippe Legrain

NYT Nov. 6, 2024

America Makes a Perilous Choice

By The Editorial Board

NYT Nov. 6, 2024

Stop Pretending Trump Is Not Who We Are

By Carlos Lozada

NYT Nov. 6, 2024

Trump Offered Men Something That Democrats Never Could

By Elizabeth Spiers

NYT Nov. 6, 2024

This Is Why Trump Won

By Daniel McCarthy

NYT Nov. 6, 2024

What We Just Went Through Wasn’t an Election. It Was a Hostage Situation.

By Tyler Austin Harper

NYT Nov. 6, 2024

I Quit the First Trump Administration. Principled People Must Serve in the Second.

By Miles Taylor

NYT Nov. 6, 2024

We Can Fight Later. Now Is the Time to Mourn.

By Michelle Goldberg

NYT Nov. 6, 2024

The Way Harris Lost Will Be Her Legacy

By Tressie McMillan Cottom

NYT Nov. 6, 2024

The Real Reason Harris and the Democrats Were Always Doomed

By David Wallace-Wells

NYT Nov. 6, 2024

A Party of Prigs and Pontificators Suffers a Humiliating Defeat

By Bret Stephens

NYT Nov. 6, 2024

It’s This Man’s, Man’s, Man’s World

By Maureen Dowd

FP November 6, 2024

Trump Wins Second Term

The Guardian, Thu 7 Nov 2024

Trump has pledged to wage war on planet Earth – and it will take a progressive revolution to stop him

George Monbiot

The Guardian, Thu 7 Nov 2024

Trump’s win is so much worse this time. Americans knew what they were voting for

Emma Brockes

The Guardian, Thu 7 Nov 2024

People around the world are appalled by Trump’s win, but women have been gripped by a visceral horror

Rhiannon Lucy Cosslett

FT November 7, 2024

Donald Trump is back: how a written-off felon returned to rule America

James Politi in Washington

FT November 7, 2024

Trump and the lure of strongman leadership

Gideon Rachman

FT November 7, 2024

Trump’s tariff obsession is worse than before

Alan Beattie

FT November 8, 2024

Big Tech’s shift on Trump

Richard Waters

NYT Nov. 7, 2024

Where Does This Leave Democrats?

By Ezra Klein

NYT Nov. 6, 2024

Voters to Elites: Do You See Me Now?

By David Brooks

NYT Nov. 7, 2024

Kamala Harris Took Women for Granted

By Pamela Paul

NYT Nov. 6, 2024

My Manifesto for Despairing Democrats

By Nicholas Kristof

NYT Nov. 7, 2024

How Could Trump and Abortion Rights Both Win?

By Jill Filipovic

NYT Nov. 7, 2024

We Don’t Have Time to Waste Time in Despair

By David French

NYT Nov. 7, 2024

Kamala Harris Failed to Read the Room

By Damon Linker

NYT Nov. 7, 2024

Democrats Ignored Gaza and Brought Down Their Party

By Peter Beinart

NYT Nov. 6, 2024

Harris Shows Trump How to Concede

By Jesse Wegman

FP November 7, 2024

Why She Lost

By Michael Hirsh, a columnist for Foreign Policy.

―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――

 ナイジェリア

FT November 6, 2024

Big Oil’s dirty legacy in Nigeria

Aanu Adeoye in Ogale, Niger Delta, and Tom Wilson in London

―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――

 中国のデフレ回避

PS Nov 6, 2024

China Can Beat Back Deflation

Michael Spence

―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――

 日本

PS Nov 6, 2024

Japan Needs Tighter Monetary Policy

Koichi Hamada

********************************

The Economist October 26th 2024

America’s election: The $1m voters

Indonesia (2) Smeltering

Sino-Indian relations: Himalayan handshake

Hamas and Hizbullah: Killing an idea

Germany’s rising populist: The world according to Sahra Wagenknecht

Charlemagne: Angela who?

Currency wars: Putin’s plan to dethrone the dollar

Business in Asia: Tropical depression

(コメント) 世界一の資産家・企業家、イーロン・マスクが、毎日1人、100万ドルもらえる宝くじを配って、トランプ支持を奨励しました。票を買う腐敗は、プーチンも広め、世界中に見られます。政府と癒着した財閥企業、国境紛争、テロ対策を掲げた越境攻撃、民間人の殺戮。

マーガレット・サッチャー、アンゲラ・メルケル、今、ドイツの政界を揺るがすのはザーラ・ヴァーゲンクネヒトです。左派的保守主義。既存の政治対立軸を破断しました。

ドルに代わる電子マネー決済システムが、BISからBRICSにより、加速するのでしょうか。

******************************

IPEの想像力 11/11/2024

新しい投資や産業構造がもたらす、成長と分配の在り方を、政治家たちは明確に語ることができません。規制緩和や、企業、富裕層への減税を競って、世界から投資を集めることができるのか? さまざまな不平等や十分な優れた労働者が育つのか? 先端的な産業が集積し、活発なイノベーションとリスクを恐れない投資が正しい社会像を描けるのか?

トランプの高関税と貿易戦争、バイデンの補助金、新しい産業政策も、グローバリゼーションを逆転させてはいない。大統領選挙は、答えを見出せないままの、アメリカ第一主義です。

****

成長の戦略が描けない。望ましい社会の在り方を説得的に語るより、既存の党派を破壊する力を持ったポピュリストが各地に現れています。こうした破壊を超えて、政治に次の秩序を構想する力が問われます。

Germany’s rising populist: The world according to Sahra Wagenknecht, The Economist October 26th 2024

・・・一方では社会正義。他方では、文化的伝統と移民の削減に基づく保守的な政治であり、戦争と平和の問題に取り組む、と彼女は言う。

・・・伝統的な左派のメニュー(富裕層への増税、より手厚い年金と最低賃金、大企業への懐疑主義)と、文化的アイデンティティに対する国家主義的な懸念、そして健全な量の「目覚めた人々へのバッシング」を混ぜ合わせたものだ。

・・・ドイツの産業モデルとその中核であるミッテルシュタント(中小企業)を強く支持し、それを損なうロシアへの制裁や、内燃機関の廃止をめざす環境保護運動を批判する。

・・・ウクライナ戦争は、NATO拡大に対するプーチンの正当な懸念から生じた。ウクライナに必要な安全保障は中国やトルコが提供するべきだ。ウクライナのNATO加盟を拒否する。ショルツ首相は「アメリカの従属者」だ。

****

アメリカでは極左から極右への転向が新しい政治を演出する手段となります。政治的過激主義の馬蹄形理論、あるいは、対角主義。開かれた民主主義は、そのような試みを誘発します。

Jan-Werner Mueller, “When the Left Goes Far Right," PS Nov 4, 2024

・・・ワイマール共和国時代には、政治的起業家が労働者支持の立場と急進的な国家主義を組み合わせて、政治的スペクトルを横断する同盟であるクロスフロントを提唱した。

・・・社会主義者と特定のタイプの保守主義者はどちらも資本主義に欠点を見つけますが、批判の性質は異なります。保守主義者は伝統的な生活様式の破壊を嘆き、社会主義者は労働者の自由の欠如について不満を言う。保守派も社会主義者も小規模な協同組合を主張するかもしれないが、その詳細は劇的に異なる。

****

連載民意のゆくえ「大変革へ、号砲が鳴った日本政治 少数与党時代の新秩序 御厨貴さん」朝日新聞デジタル、20241112

・・・久しぶりに日本の政治が創造的に変わるチャンスが訪れたととらえるべきだ。

・・・(石破茂)は4代目のクリスチャン・・・伝道師のままで首相になってしまった。党内基盤が弱いどころか、歴代の自民党総裁と比べて、基盤が皆無に等しい。

・・・彼は伝道師らしく、とにかく青臭くきれいごとととられるような言葉を紡ぎ続けるのです。・・・与党が少数になり、ただでさえも思い通りにはならない。それをどこまで国民が受け入れるか・・・

皇室、沖縄、米軍基地、憲法、原発、核兵器、トランプ外交、米中対立、脱アベノミクス、円安、利上げ、インフレと賃金、社会保障、先端産業、安定した雇用・良い仕事の創出、財政赤字・債務依存、地方創生、教育・研究水準、イノベーション、国際競争力、不平等、性差別・性暴力、など、問うべき視点は多く、いずれも欠かせない。

「新しい政治秩序づくりに向けた号砲が鳴りすべての政治家」が走り出す。

******************************