IPEの果樹園2024
今週のReview
11/4-9
*****************************
ドナルド・トランプ ・・・US大統領選挙 ・・・カマラ・ハリス ・・・中国研究、外交、地方政府 ・・・UK政治 ・・・イスラエル ・・・ジョージア ・・・環境保護、気候変動 ・・・ポーランド ・・・民主主義、ポピュリズム ・・・IMF ・・・ウクライナ ・・・スーダン ・・・ノーベル経済学賞・文学賞 ・・・US外交 ・・・ドル ・・・AI革命 ・・・反独占 ・・・スペイン ・・・北朝鮮 ・・・日本政治 ・・・ロシア ・・・EU政治 ・・・アフリカ ・・・インド ・・・国際政治 ・・・移民 ・・・トルコ ・・・メディア ・・・フランス
［Review関連コラム集］
******************************
主要な出典 FP: Foreign Policy, FT: Financial Times, The Guardian, NYT: New York Times, PS: Project Syndicate, VOX: VoxEU.orgそして、The Economist (London)
［これは英文コラムの紹介です．私の関心に従って，www.DeepL.com/Translator（無料版）、Google翻訳を基に修正し、要点を紹介しています．正しい内容は必ず自分で確かめてください．著者と掲載機関の著作権に従います．］
―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――
● ドナルド・トランプ
The Guardian, Fri 25 Oct 2024
Trump really could be the next president. So it’s time to call his instincts what they are: fascist
Jonathan Freedland
The Guardian, Fri 25 Oct 2024
The Guardian view on the US election and foreign policy: the world can’t afford Trump again
Editorial
PS Oct 25, 2024
First Trump Came for the Immigrants
Nina L. Khrushcheva
NYT Oct. 25, 2024
Maggie Haberman on What an Unleashed Trump Might Do
By Ezra Klein
NYT Oct. 24, 2024
How Trump Could Bankrupt Social Security
By Paul Krugman
FT October 26, 2024
The problem with the Trump trade
Katie Martin
NYT Oct. 27, 2024
Four Lessons From Nine Years of Being ‘Never Trump’
By David French
NYT Oct. 27, 2024
Two Billionaires, Two Newspapers, Two Acts of Self-Sabotage
By Nancy Gibbs
FT October 29, 20424
What could stop the global green energy race? A Trump victory
Pilita Clark
FT October 28, 20424
Women will decide America’s future
Rana Foroohar
PS Oct 28, 2024
Trump’s Not-So-Secret Weapon
Reed Galen
PS Oct 28, 2024
Fascism in Our Time
Harold James
NYT Oct. 28, 2024
MAGA Unchained in Madison Square Garden
By Michelle Goldberg
FP October 28, 2024
Trump’s Backers Fling Open America’s Door to Money Launderers
By Jodi Vittori, a professor of the practice and the co-chair of the global politics and security concentration in the Master of Science in foreign service program at Georgetown University.
FT October 30, 2024
Trump is the man who would be king
Martin Wolf
FT October 29, 2024
America isn’t too worried about fascism
Edward Luce
PS Oct 29, 2024
Trump’s Relentless Fraud About Election Fraud
John Mark Hansen
NYT Oct. 29, 2024
My Fellow Republicans, It’s Time to Say Enough With Trump
By J. Michael Luttig
NYT Oct. 29, 2024
Trump Says the Country Is ‘Dying.’ The Data Say Otherwise.
By Steven Pinker
NYT Oct. 29, 2024
That Revolting Rally Was a Sign of Weakness
By Jamelle Bouie
NYT Oct. 28, 2024
Trump’s Biggest Con: Pretending He’s on the Side of Working Men and Women
By Paul Krugman
FT October 30, 2024
How Trump learnt to love big business
Janan Ganesh
NYT Oct. 29, 2024
A Conservative Case Against Trump
By Bret Stephens
FP October 30, 2024
The Enduring Mystery of Trump’s Relationship With Russia
By Michael Hirsh, a columnist for Foreign Policy.
FP October 30, 2024
So, Is Trump Really a Fascist?
By Howard W. French, a columnist at Foreign Policy.
FT October 31, 2024
The internal rivalries that will determine Trump’s policies on trade
Alan Beattie
NYT Oct. 31, 2024
With Election Day Near, Here’s a Reminder That a Second Trump Term Could Mean Mayhem
By Jonathan Stevenson
FP October 31, 2024
What Would Elon Musk’s Tesla Gain—and Lose—From a Trump Presidency?
By Patrick Schröder, a senior research fellow at the Environment and Society Centre, Chatham House.
―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――
● US大統領選挙
FT October 25, 2024
Don’t be beguiled by the apparent calm reigning in US bond markets
Gillian Tett
FT October 25, 2024
Politics is distorting economic data
Paul Donovan
NYT Oct. 24, 2024
The Election Is Happening Too Soon
By David Brooks
The Guardian, Sat 26 Oct 2024
The Washington Post is sitting on the fence at the most dangerous time in history
Tim Adams
FT October 26, 2024
What the polls can’t tell us about America’s election
Oliver Roeder
NYT Oct. 26, 2024
Democrats Finally Did What Sherrod Brown Asked For. It Might Be Too Late.
By Alec MacGillis
FT October 27, 2024
Battle of the billionaires: the mega rich spending to swing the US election
Alex Rogers in Washington and Eva Xiao and Sam Learner in New York
PS Oct 28, 2024
Sinophobia and US Election Lies
Stephen S. Roach
FP October 28, 2024
How America’s Fourth-Largest County Is Preparing for Election Interference
By Rishi Iyengar, a reporter at Foreign Policy.
FP October 28, 2024
A Contested U.S. Election Would Mean Global Instability
By Luke McGee, an Emmy Award-winning journalist covering European diplomacy.
FP October 28, 2024
Michigan’s Lebanese Americans Feel Abandoned by Democrats
By Abdelhalim Abdelrahman, an independent Palestinian American writer and political analyst covering Palestinian affairs, U.S. politics, and the broader Middle East.
FT October 29, 2024
America’s foreign policy has changed — and must remain changed
Chris Murphy
FT October 29, 2024
Vote with your ballot, not your life savings
David Booth
PS Oct 29, 2024
Why Many Workers Now Vote Republican
Eric Posner
NYT Oct. 29, 2024
I’ve Been Through a Lot of Election Nights. Here’s How Nov. 5 May Go.
By Ben Ginsberg
FP October 29, 2024
The 50-Year-Old Book That Explains Everything About U.S. Politics—Including This Election
By Julian E. Zelizer, a professor of history and public affairs at Princeton University.
FT October 30, 2024
How US campaigners are battling Black voter apathy
Taylor Nicole Rogers
PS Oct 30, 2024
No President Can Revive US Manufacturing Employment
Robert Z. Lawrence
PS Oct 30, 2024
Is Political Polling Broken?
Michael A. Bailey
NYT Oct. 30, 2024
It’s Not Too Early to Begin the Reckoning
By Thomas B. Edsall
NYT Oct. 30, 2024
What if Democrats Win the White House and Congress on Tuesday?
By Jonathan Alter
NYT Oct. 30, 2024
The Election Looks Like an Intramural Squabble Between Billionaires
By David Wallace-Wells
NYT Oct. 30, 2024
A ‘Glorious’ Economy
By Paul Krugman
FP October 30, 2024
In Virginia, a Vietnamese American Community Divided
By Allison Meakem, an associate editor at Foreign Policy.
FP October 30, 2024
Another ‘Stop the Steal’ Could Weaken America Abroad
By Keith Johnson, a reporter at Foreign Policy covering geoeconomics and energy.
FT October 31, 2024
America’s gender-gap election has a long history
Elizabeth Cobbs
PS Oct 31, 2024
Why Is the US Presidential Race Even Close?
John Mark Hansen
NYT Oct. 30, 2024
Don’t Let Liberal Purity Elect Trump
By Nicholas Kristof
FP October 31, 2024
U.S. Officials: Foreign Election Interference Could Get Worse After Nov. 5
By Michael Hirsh, a columnist for Foreign Policy.
―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――
● カマラ・ハリス
The Guardian, Sat 26 Oct 2024
The Observer view: Americans who believe in democracy have no choice but to vote for Harris
Observer editorial
NYT Oct. 28, 2024
Michelle Obama: ‘I Am Asking You, From the Core of My Being, to Take Our Lives Seriously’
By Michelle Obama
The Guardian, Wed 30 Oct 2024
How can I vote for Kamala Harris if she supports Israel’s war? Here is my answer
Bernie Sanders
The Guardian, Thu 31 Oct 2024
Yes, Bidenomics is working here in Pennsylvania. But maybe not enough to win the White House
JoJo Burgess
NYT Oct. 31, 2024
The Harris-Cheney Partnership Is Not Just a Marriage of Convenience
By David French
―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――
● 中国研究、外交、地方政府
FT October 25, 2024
Sinologist Li Cheng: ‘America is not in the mood to study China’
Edward White
FP October 25, 2024
What Will a Post-Xi China Look Like?
By Kevin Rudd, the former prime minister of Australia.
FT October 29, 20424
Local government has become a chokehold for Chinese business
Angela Zhang
PS Oct 29, 2024
Don’t Dismiss the BRICS
Joschka Fischer
FP October 29, 2024
Xi Is Overcoming His Dislike of the Stock Market
By Lizzi C. Lee, a fellow on Chinese economy at the Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis.
FT October 31, 2024
Chinese EVs leave other carmakers with only bad options
Robin Harding
PS Oct 31, 2024
The Chip War Turns Two
Keun Lee
FP October 31, 2024
Markets Are Underpricing the Possibility of a U.S.-China Economic War
By Scott Kennedy, a senior advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――
● UK政治
FT October 26, 2024
What if the NHS crisis is a classic management problem?
Camilla Cavendish
FT October 25, 2024
Reeves should embrace the freedom of disapproval
Robert Shrimsley
FT October 25, 2024
The unfair hole in next week’s UK Budget
Soumaya Keynes
FT October 27, 2024
Three tests for Britain’s Budget
The Guardian, Mon 28 Oct 2024
Rachel Reeves’s first budget offers a chance to break out of the doom loop. Here’s how she should do it
Jonathan Portes
The Guardian, Tue 29 Oct 2024
Are you a fat cat or a working person? Find out in tomorrow’s budget
Gaby Hinsliff
The Guardian, Tue 29 Oct 2024
The Guardian view on Rishi Sunak’s exit: fated to be a forgotten prime minister
Editorial
The Guardian, Wed 30 Oct 2024
Is this the budget Britain needs? Our panel responds
Polly Toynbee, Frances Ryan, Sahil Dutta, Sharon Graham, John Redwood and others
FT October 31, 2024
Goodbye to low-tax Britain
Robert Shrimsley
FT October 31, 2024
Working people will pay the price of higher taxes for employers
Claer Barrett
FT October 31, 2024
Britain’s Labour Budget: bold ambition, uncertain prospects
FT October 31, 2024
Reeves has made her choice — but success is not guaranteed
Martin Wolf
FT October 31, 2024
Will investors live to regret their pre-Budget actions?
Moira O’Neill
FT October 31, 2024
Reeves shatters manifesto ‘matrix’ with blockbuster Budget
Henry Mance in London
The Guardian, Thu 31 Oct 2024
At last, a government willing to spend – but this budget will expose it to two great dangers
Aditya Chakrabortty
FT November 1, 2024
The Budget should not be a big deal for interest rates
Chris Giles
―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――
● イスラエル
FT October 26, 2024
Israel’s spiralling offensive
FP October 26, 2024
What Israel’s Attack on Iran Means for the Region
By Rishi Iyengar, a reporter at Foreign Policy.
FT October 27, 2024
Israel’s attack leaves Iran with a difficult dilemma
Emile Hokayem
The Guardian, Mon 28 Oct 2024
The Guardian view on Israel v the UN: the making of an outlaw state
Editorial
The Guardian, Mon 28 Oct 2024
The lesson of Israel’s unfathomably cruel war: ours is still a world where might is right
Nesrine Malik
FT October 30, 2024
The problem with the term ‘global majority’
Stephen Bush
FP October 30, 2024
The Tamil Tigers Were Completely Crushed. Is Hamas Next?
By Ajai Sahni, Executive Director of the Institute for Conflict Management in New Delhi.
FP October 31, 2024
Netanyahu Favors Trump, but He Could Come to Regret It
By David E. Rosenberg, the economics editor and a columnist for the English edition of Haaretz and the author of Israel’s Technology Economy.
―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――
● ジョージア
FT October 25, 2024
Vladimir Putin’s battle to keep Georgia in Russia’s orbit
Ben Hall and Anastasia Stognei in Tbilisi
FP October 25, 2024
Could Elections Reverse Georgia’s Break-Up With the West?
By Natia Seskuria, an associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute.
FT October 29, 20424
Georgia’s crumbling European dream
FP October 28, 2024
The U.S. Should Not Recognize Georgia’s Illegitimate Elections
By Ian Kelly, a U.S. ambassador to Georgia from 2015 to 2018, and David J. Kramer, executive director of the George W. Bush Institute.
PS Oct 30, 2024
The End of Georgia’s European Dream?
Salome Samadashvili
―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――
● 環境保護、気候変動
PS Oct 25, 2024
Making Biodiversity Credits Work
Almir Narayamoga Suruí and Simon Zadek
PS Oct 28, 2024
Charting a Course for Coastal Resilience
Karen Sack
PS Oct 28, 2024
Prosperity Requires a Healthy Planet
Axel van Trotsenburg
PS Oct 30, 2024
Where Financial Innovation Meets Sustainable Development
Jordan Schwartz
―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――
● ポーランド
PS Oct 25, 2024
Polish Democracy’s Winter of Discontent
Sławomir Sierakowski
―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――
● リモートワーク
PS Oct 25, 2024
What Remote Work Can Do for Global Development
Charles Ferguson
―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――
● 民主主義、ポピュリズム
PS Oct 25, 2024
Saving Democracy from Itself
Slavoj Žižek
VoxEU / 27 Oct 2024
Populism’s original sin: Short-term economic consequences of populist policy
Guillermo Woo-Mora
The Guardian, Thu 31 Oct 2024
An excess of billionaires is destabilising politics – just as academics predicted
Zoe Williams
PS Oct 31, 2024
Political Protest and the University
Joseph S. Nye, Jr.
―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――
● IMF
PS Oct 25, 2024
Will the IMF Survive to 100?
Paulo Nogueira Batista, Jr. and Robert H. Wade
―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――
● ウクライナ
NYT Oct. 25, 2024
Biden Has a Crucial Decision to Make on Ukraine
By Serge Schmemann
The Guardian, Sat 26 Oct 2024
Joe Biden’s big blunder: how the war in Ukraine became a global disaster
Simon Tisdall
FP October 28, 2024
Conscription Is Breaking Ukraine
By Paul Hockenos, a Berlin-based journalist.
FT October 29, 2024
Germany will play a pivotal role in Ukraine’s future
Constanze Stelzenmüller
FP October 31, 2024
Ukraine Walks a Tightrope on the U.S. Election
By Fabrice Deprez, a French freelance journalist based in Kyiv, Ukraine.
―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――
● スーダン
FP October 25, 2024
How the U.N. Can Prevent Genocide in Sudan
By Roméo Dallaire, the founder of the Dallaire Institute for Children, Peace and Security. He served as force commander of the United Nations Assistance Mission for Rwanda during the 1994 genocide, and Shelly Whitman, the executive director of the Dallaire Institute for Children, Peace and Security.
―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――
● ノーベル経済学賞・文学賞
FP October 25, 2024
Why This Year’s Nobel in Economics Is So Controversial
By Howard W. French, a columnist at Foreign Policy.
VoxEU / 29 Oct 2024
Institutions and prosperity: The 2024 Nobel laureates
Melissa Dell
FP October 30, 2024
Han Kang’s Nobel Is a Win for South Korea’s Democratic Struggle
By S. Nathan Park, a Washington-based attorney and nonresident fellow of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft.
―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――
● US外交
FP October 25, 2024
The United States Needs Subnational Diplomacy More Than Ever
By Jon Temin, the vice president of policy & programs at the Truman Center for National Policy and Truman National Security Project, and Max Bouchet, deputy director for city and state diplomacy at the Truman Center for National Policy.
FP October 25, 2024
How the Taliban Built an Air Force
By Gil Barndollar, a senior fellow at Defense Priorities.
NYT Oct. 27, 2024
What Football Can Teach Politics
By Sam Walker
FT October 28, 20424
Trump’s foreign policy plan: embrace unpredictability
Alec Russell in Washington
FP October 28, 2024
The Case for the Greater West
By Peter Slezkine, the director of the Monterey Trialogue (U.S.-Russia-China) at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies and a nonresident senior fellow at the Stimson Center.
FP October 31, 2024
IR Experts See Glaring Differences Between Harris and Trump
By Irene Entringer García Blanes, Susan Peterson, Ryan Powers, and Michael J. Tierney
―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――
● 暗号通貨
FP October 25, 2024
Senegal’s Cryptocurrency City Has Evaporated
By David Gerard, the author of the book Attack of the 50 Foot Blockchain and the cryptocurrency and blockchain news blog of the same name.
―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――
● ドル
FP October 25, 2024
How the Dollar Became a Double-Edged Sword
By Carey K. Mott, a researcher at the Yale Program on Financial Stability and a visiting researcher at the Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance.
―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――
● AI革命
FT October 26, 2024
Beware the AI bureaucrats
Yuval Noah Harari
FT October 28, 2024
Ride-sharing robo-pods are the future of cities
Vinod Khosla
FP October 28, 2024
The Next AI Debate Is About Geopolitics
By Jared Cohen, the president of global affairs at Goldman Sachs and co-head of the Goldman Sachs Global Institute.
NYT Oct. 29, 2024
A Harris Presidency Is the Only Way to Stay Ahead of A.I.
By Thomas L. Friedman
FT October 31, 2024
Cyber security companies are thriving — even when they fail
John Thornhill
FT November 1, 2024
Google is winning the AI search wars
Richard Waters
FP October 31, 2024
AI’s Alarming Trend Toward Illiberalism
By Ami Fields-Meyer, a senior fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School and former senior policy advisor to Vice President Kamala Harris, and Janet Haven, the executive director of Data & Society and a member of the National AI Advisory Committee.
―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――
● 反独占
NYT Oct. 26, 2024
The Push to Fire Lina Khan Reveals a Serious Problem in Silicon Valley
By Nate Loewentheil
PS Oct 31, 2024
How Antitrust Can Advance Kamala Harris’s Small-Business Agenda
Sandeep Vaheesan
―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――
● 中央アジア
FT October 27, 2024
Central Asians edge into a brave new world on Russia’s doorstep
Tony Barber
―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――
● スペイン
FT October 27, 2024
The trouble with Pedro Sánchez’s ‘maverick’ foreign policy
Barney Jopson in Madrid
―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――
● 北朝鮮
FT October 28, 20424
The west underestimates North Korea at its peril
Gideon Rachman
―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――
● 日本政治
NYT Oct. 28, 2024
Japan’s Indispensable Political Party Is Faltering
By Tomohiko Taniguchi
PS Oct 29, 2024
Japan’s Electoral Stalemate
Takatoshi Ito
FT October 30, 2024
Japan’s unfortunate political limbo
―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――
● ロシア
FP October 28, 2024
Russia Can’t Keep Spending Like This for Long
By Agathe Demarais, a columnist at Foreign Policy and a senior policy fellow on geoeconomics at the European Council on Foreign Relations.
―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――
● EU政治
FT October 29, 2024
Why Europe’s car crisis is mostly made in China
Kana Inagaki in London, Edward White in Shanghai and Sarah White in Paris
The Guardian, Thu 31 Oct 2024
It’s not just Democrats who fear a Trump victory – it would be a disaster for Europe too
Nathalie Tocci
FT November 1, 2024
The perfect storm for European automakers
The editorial board
FT October 31, 2024
The new face of European illiberalism
Raphael Minder in Bratislava
PS Oct 31, 2024
The Spirit of Brexit Has Infected the EU
Yanis Varoufakis
FP October 31, 2024
Europe’s Big Climate Plan Isn’t Working
By Giovanni Legorano, a journalist based in Italy.
―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――
● アフリカ
FT October 30, 2024
Does Africa need its own credit rating agency?
―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――
● インド
PS Oct 29, 2024
Can India Become a Developed Economy by Mid-Century?
Anne O. Krueger
―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――
● 国際政治
NYT Oct. 29, 2024
We’ve Just Had a Glimpse of the World to Come
By Lydia Polgreen
PS Oct 30, 2024
Belarus in the Dock
Gabija Grigaitė-Daugirdė and Aarif Abraham
FP October 30, 2024
The G-20 Needs a Grand Bargain With the Global South
By Robert A. Manning, a distinguished fellow with the Strategic Foresight Hub at the Stimson Center, where he works on its global foresight and China programs.
FP October 30, 2024
No, BRICS Isn’t Trying to Rival the West
By Nicholas Bequelin, a senior fellow at Yale Law School’s Paul Tsai China Center and the former Asia-Pacific director of Amnesty International.
FT October 31, 2024
How the west should re-engage with the global south
Alec Russell
―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――
● ミャンマー
FP October 29, 2024
How to Build an Inclusive Myanmar Post-Junta
By Emily Fishbein, a freelance journalist who focuses on Myanmar, and Hpan Ja Brang, a social justice activist and freelance researcher from Myanmar’s Kachin state.
―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――
● 移民
FT October 30, 2024
A bipartisan settlement on US immigration is still possible
Mark Everson
VoxEU / 31 Oct 2024
Foreign aid and the ‘root causes’ of migration
Andre Gröger, Tobias Heidland, Lukas Wellner, Andreas Fuchs
―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――
● トルコ
FT October 30, 2024
Erdoğan has big plans, but the Kurdish problem keeps getting in the way
Gönül Tol
―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――
● メディア
FT October 31, 2024
How the media is failing us
Simon Kuper
―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――
● フランス
PS Oct 31, 2024
A Weak French Government’s Fiscal Reckoning
Philippe Aghion and Bénédicte Berner
********************************
The Economist October 19th 2024
The envy of the world
Canada’s Trudeau trap: Justin’s time
Space launches: Catching the future
New Zealand: Kiwis come in from the cold
Big dream in a small place: Bhutan prays it can be India’s Hong Kong
China and Taiwan: Love, war and drills
Diploma politics: Degrees of separation
Lexington: Battery flattery
The war in Gaza: Hell and horror, again
Special Report: The American economy
Migration: Out of sight, out of mind?
Moldova’s election and referendum: Small boat, big waves
Turkey: Autocrats or democracies?
Russia’s intelligence agencies: Going feral
Europe’s laggard: Mein Gott
Free Exchange: Nations fail, academics succeed
（コメント） アメリカ経済が他の豊かな諸国を顕著に上回る成長を遂げてきた、という理由を考えます。巨大な統一市場、巨大でダイナミックな資本市場、移民流入を含む、柔軟な労働市場、なにより、急速なイノベーションとその普及を支える投資家たちの熱狂。
他方で、中国経済は成長が減速し、それを打開する上で政治が制約となっている。ヨーロッパはどうすればよいのか？ 移民を排除し、ドイル経済は停滞しています。小国の模索は厳しい条件に従うしかありません。
******************************
IPEの想像力 11/4/2024
世界各地で、多くの人たちが、アメリカ大統領選挙の速報を観ています。2016年との違いは、トランプ再選がありうると世界が知っていることです。それはショッキングなことですが、もはや意外ではない。アメリカは、そして世界も、大きくトランプ化したと思います。
EUの指導者たちは頭を抱えているのに、日本の政治家は自民党敗北のショックを吸収するための迷走を続けています。日本も、朝鮮半島や台湾と同じく、米中対立のはざまにあり、中国市場と日米安全保障条約に依存したまま大きなストレスを受ければ、進路を見失います。ウクライナと同じく、ロシアの隣国です。
****
トランプ優位のニュースが流れています。
トランプが勝っても、民主主義が敗北したとは思いません。しかし、彼が選挙結果を攻撃し続けたように、選挙という制度そのものが有効な条件を見直すべきだと思います。
たとえばロシアは、ヨーロッパ諸国の選挙に激しい情報操作を行っている、とThe Economistの記事は伝えています。
移民・難民の国際システムを欠いたままでは、豊かな福祉国家の条件を失うおそれがあり、高齢化・少子化社会の経済停滞を抜け出すことが難しくなります。
大統領制度の下では、あまりにも多く、制度にかかる負担が再選を目指す大統領に向けられ、信任投票になります。ハリスは現実に対峙する勇気を欠き、見通しが甘かったと思います。
この先、トランプの予測不能な発言と逸脱、独裁的傾向が、アメリカの政治システムをどこまで変えるのか？ 共和党、最高裁判所、さらに、連邦準備制度や警察・司法システム、軍隊にまで、トランプ化がおよぶのか？
民主主義諸国は改革を進めるより、ポピュリストの成功が多くの模倣者を生み、政治の劇場化、エンターテインメント化の中で、超富裕層の政治支配と分断政治の下り坂を転がり落ちていくかもしれません。
****
トランプ化するアメリカと世界で、The Economistが示すような高成長は持続可能なのでしょうか？ それは社会のだれにとって望ましいのか？
株式市場による資金調達。技術革新の波及を促す社会システム。ドル支配と債務への依存。覇権国家アメリカの過剰拡大と、多国間核管理型のＡＩ覇権戦争。
いずれの小国も地域統合を真剣に準備すべきでしょう。国境を超える安全保障と成長モデルの再編成に、自国を位置づけます。それは、貿易と投資のパターンを決め、通貨の安定性と柔軟な調整、マクロ経済管理の自律性を実現できるルールを見出す。そのために、地域で協力する道を進むことではないでしょうか。・・・講義でお話したように。
******************************