IPEの果樹園2024
今週のReview
6/10-15
*****************************
トランプ有罪判決 ・・・スターマー、スナク、UK選挙戦 ・・・インド選挙 ・・・イスラエル、ハマス、パレスチナ ・・・メキシコ新大統領 ・・・EU政治、議会選挙 ・・・スロバキア、ジョージア、ドイツ ・・・金融システム ・・・金融政策 ・・・ワシントン・コンセンサス、新自由主義 ・・・AI規制、ロボット ・・・政治経済学 ・・・中国、輸出、南シナ海 ・・・US大統領選挙 ・・・南アフリカ ・・・ロシア、軍事国家、ウクライナ ・・・US外交、戦争 ・・・気候変動 ・・・観光規制 ・・・アルゼンチン ・・・女性 ・・・チリ ・・・シンガポール
［Review関連コラム集］
******************************
主要な出典 FP: Foreign Policy, FT: Financial Times, The Guardian, NYT: New York Times, PS: Project Syndicate, VOX: VoxEU.orgそして、The Economist (London)
［これは英文コラムの紹介です．私の関心に従って，www.DeepL.com/Translator（無料版）、Google翻訳を基に修正し、要点を紹介しています．正しい内容は必ず自分で確かめてください．著者と掲載機関の著作権に従います．］
―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――
● トランプ有罪判決
The Guardian, Fri 31 May 2024
So Trump moves closer to jail and nearer to the White House. This is our world in 2024
Marina Hyde
The Guardian, Fri 31 May 2024
The Guardian view on Donald Trump’s conviction: a criminal unfit to stand or serve
Editorial
FT June 1, 2024
Trump campaign claims fundraising windfall in wake of guilty verdict
Alex Rogers in Washington
FT June 1, 2024
A conviction does not end the threat posed by Donald Trump
FT May 31, 2024
Trump’s guilty verdict puts America’s political system on trial
Edward Luce
PS May 31, 2024
Rough Justice for Trump
ERIC POSNER
NYT May 30, 2024
Donald Trump, Felon
By The Editorial Board
NYT May 31, 2024
What Matters Most About Trump’s Guilty Verdict, According to 7 Opinion Writers
By New York Times Opinion
NYT May 30, 2024
Trump’s Guilty Verdict May Be a Political Accelerant
By Frank Bruni
NYT May 31, 2024
Trump Is ‘Honored’ by a Verdict That Should Shame Him
By David Firestone
NYT May 30, 2024
The Best Move for the Trump Jury: A Split Decision
By Jonathan Alter
FP MAY 31, 2024
A Nation of Alternative Realities
By Michael Hirsh, a columnist for Foreign Policy.
FP MAY 31, 2024
The World Reacts to Trump’s Guilty Verdict
By Robbie Gramer and Keith Johnson
FP MAY 31, 2024
Trump’s Conviction Could Help End Elite Impunity
By Paul Musgrave, an assistant professor of political science at the University of Massachusetts Amherst.
The Guarduan, Sat 1 Jun 2024
Whatever happens next, the Donald Trump effect will continue to stain politics the world over
Simon Tisdall
The Guarduan, Sat 1 Jun 2024
The Observer view on Donald Trump: utterly unfit for office, he should quit the race for the White House
Observer editorial
FT June 1, 2024
Bombast vs bookkeeping: how Trump failed to sway a jury of his peers
Joe Miller in New York
NYT May 31, 2024
I Was Skeptical of the ‘Zombie’ Trump Case. I Stand Corrected.
By Randall D. Eliason
FP MAY 31, 2024
The Problem With Invoking the ‘Third World’ Slur
By Howard W. French, a columnist at Foreign Policy.
NYT June 3, 2024
‘Lock Her Up’ Was Not Just a Slogan
By Michelle Goldberg
―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――
● スターマー、スナク、UK選挙戦
The Guardian, Fri 31 May 2024
Power-drunk and arrogant: if this is how Starmer’s Labour treats its MPs, what will his party be like in power?
Owen Jones
FT May 31, 2024
A new intergenerational contract is needed
Camilla Cavendish
FT June 1, 2024
Parties should avoid tax pledges they may come to regret
Helen Miller
PS May 31, 2024
Britain’s Make-or-Break Election
CHRIS PATTEN
NYT May 31, 2024
The Dizzying Rise and Damp, Deflated End of Prime Minister Rishi Sunak
By Sam Freedman
FT June 1, 2024
Whitby Woman: the latest target voter should prepare to be wooed
Luke Tryl
FP JUNE 1, 2024
Is Britain All That Special?
By Marie Le Conte, a freelance political journalist based in London.
The Guardian, Sun 2 Jun 2024
Socialism isn’t a dirty word. It’s simply about wanting to make a fairer society
Will Hutton
The Guardian, Sun 2 Jun 2024
The Observer view on the social care crisis: whoever wins the election, it needs addressing urgently
Observer editorial
The Guardian, Sun 2 Jun 2024
The Guardian view on taxing billionaires: we need to talk about the super-rich
Editorial
FT June 3, 2024
Labour’s lack of boldness could come back to haunt it
Martin Sandbu
The Guardian, Mon 3 Jun 2024
I’d like to say Johnson and Brexit made me quit politics. But they were symptoms of the problem, not the cause
Rory Stewart
The Guardian, Mon 3 Jun 2024
The Guardian view on Nigel Farage: a serial loser looks to win big in British politics
Editorial
FT June 3, 2024
Britain’s muddle-along economic model
The Guardian, Tue 4 Jun 2024
Starmer has mastered the speeches about Tory ‘chaos’ and ‘decline’, but Britain needs hope – where is it?
Andy Beckett
FT June 4, 2024
Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer to clash in first UK election leaders’ debate
George Parker in London and Jim Pickard in Manchester
FT June 4, 2024
No, Starmer should not be bolder
Janan Ganesh
FT June 4, 2024
UK politics must stop fixating on the grey vote
Stephen Bush
The Guardian, Wed 5 Jun 2024
Stockpiling nuclear weapons? That will do nothing for national security, Keir Starmer
Jeremy Corbyn
FT June 5, 2024
Behold the final casualties of Brexit
Robert Shrimsley
The Guardian, Thu 6 Jun 2024
Don’t underestimate Faragism this election. He’s a virus infecting UK politics
Aditya Chakrabortty
The Guardian, Thu 6 Jun 2024
Compared with the dark saga of Donald Trump, British politics looks like Beatrix Potter
Emma Brockes
The Guardian, Thu 6 Jun 2024
General elections are a travesty of democracy – let’s give the people a real voice
George Monbiot
FT June 6, 2024
Why British trade policy needs to stand still
Alan Beattie
FT June 6, 2024
Aspiration isn’t just for Tories
Simon Kuper
―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――
● インド選挙
The Guardian, Fri 31 May 2024
Tomorrow I will cast my vote in India’s elections. Democracy itself is at stake
Amit Chaudhuri
FT June 5, 2024
India’s Modi emerges weakened
FP JUNE 4, 2024
Modi’s Power Has Peaked
By Devesh Kapur, the Starr Foundation professor of South Asian studies at the School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University.
The Guardian, Wed 5 Jun 2024
The Guardian view on Modi’s election disappointment: the winner is democracy in India
Editorial
PS Jun 5, 2024
The Road Ahead for Modi and India
IAN BREMMER
NYT June 5, 2024
India Keeps Its Glorious, Messy Tradition Alive
By Lydia Polgreen
NYT June 5, 2024
Indian Voters Have Finally Woken Up
By Anjali Mody
FP JUNE 6, 2024
Why Modi Underperformed
By Ravi Agrawal, the editor in chief of Foreign Policy.
―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――
● イスラエル、ハマス、パレスチナ
FT June 1, 2024
Joe Biden announces new Israel-Hamas peace proposals
James Politi in Washington and Andrew England in London
FP MAY 31, 2024
Biden Outlines Israeli Proposal For Gaza Cease-Fire Deal
By Amy Mackinnon
FP MAY 31, 2024
Is Biden Blowing It in Gaza and Ukraine?
By Emma Ashford, a columnist at Foreign Policy and a senior fellow with the Reimagining U.S. Grand Strategy program at the Stimson Center, and Matthew Kroenig, a columnist at Foreign Policy and vice president and senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security.
NYT June 1, 2024
How to Think Through the Moral Tangle in Gaza
By Nicholas Kristof
FT June 4, 2024
Biden has put his credibility on the line with the Gaza plan
Kim Ghattas
FP JUNE 4, 2024
The Man Who Tried to Save Israel From Itself
By Gershom Gorenberg, an Israeli journalist and historian.
FT June 6, 2024
Netanyahu is a disaster for Israel
Ariel Emanuel
FP JUNE 6, 2024
America’s Israel Policy Is Stuck in the 1990s
By Steven A. Cook, a columnist at Foreign Policy and the Eni Enrico Mattei senior fellow for Middle East and Africa studies at the Council on Foreign Relations.
―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――
● メキシコ新大統領
FT June 1, 2024
Claudia Sheinbaum, the woman hoping to be Mexico’s first female president
Michael Stott and Christine Murray in Mexico City
FT June 3, 2024
Claudia Sheinbaum’s mandate is huge but so are her challenges
Michael Stott
PS Jun 5, 2024
An Economic Agenda for Mexico’s New President
SANTIAGO LEVY
―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――
● EU政治、議会選挙
FT May 31, 2024
The European elections will be a rough ride for the political mainstream
Ivan Krastev
PS Jun 3, 2024
What the EU Has Done for Us
NADIA CALVIÑO
NYT June 3, 2024
My Country Shows What Europe Has Become
By Anton Jäger
FT June 4, 2024
Meloni and Le Pen: the relationship at the heart of European politics
Leila Abboud in Paris, Amy Kazmin in Rome and Ben Hall in London
PS Jun 4, 2024
No Quiet for Europe on the Eastern Front
SŁAWOMIR SIERAKOWSKI
PS Jun 4, 2024
What the Weimar Triangle Could Do for Europe
MARK LEONARD
The Guardian, Wed 5 Jun 2024
The far right may not win real power in Europe – but it will influence those who do
Cas Mudde
FT June 5, 2024
Why Italy’s expat tax regime is fomenting social discord in Milan
Silvia Sciorilli Borrelli
FT June 5, 2024
Europe’s nationalists gloss over Russia differences in quest for power
Ben Hall, Europe editor
PS Jun 5, 2024
Europe Needs a Democracy Commissioner
PAOLO CESARINI, CHRISTOPHE LECLERCQ, and MARIA JOÃO RODRIGUES
The Guardian, Thu 6 Jun 2024
Macron and Meloni appear poles apart – but what if they joined forces to save Europe?
Lorenzo Marsili
VoxEU / 6 Jun 2024
The EU miracle: When 75 million reached high income
Basile Grassi
NYT June 6, 2024
It May Be Scary, but Europe Is Coming to Life
By Caroline de Gruyter
―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――
● スロバキア、ジョージア、ドイツ
FT June 4, 2024
Slovakia’s government is doubling down despite assassination attempt
Anton Spisak
FT June 6, 2024
Opportunistic Georgia joins Europe’s illiberal club
Thomas de Waal
FP JUNE 6, 2024
Politics Is Especially Violent in Germany
By Paul Hockenos, a Berlin-based journalist.
―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――
● 金融システム
FT May 31, 2024
Why fintech upstarts have failed to unseat UK banks
Akila Quinio
FT June 1, 2024
How Liz Truss still haunts markets
Katie Martin
FT June 3, 2024
The many-sided crisis in consulting
Rana Foroohar
FT June 6, 2024
An unnecessary banking subsidy whose time is up
Chris Giles
PS Jun 6, 2024
The Moral Hazard of Lower Interest Rates
DAMBISA MOYO
―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――
● 金融政策
PS May 31, 2024
The Danger of Premature ECB Rate Cuts
AXEL A. WEBER
NYT June 4, 2024
Goodbye Inflation, Hello Recession?
By Paul Krugman
FT June 5, 2024
ECB rate cut to breathe life into Eurozone economy
Martin Arnold in Frankfurt
FT June 6, 2024
The ECB’s precautionary first cut
FT June 6, 2024
Why the hurricane season matters for the Federal Reserve
Rebecca Patterson
―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――
● ホワイトカラーの犯罪
FT May 31, 2024
Why do rich people steal?
Rhymer Rigby
―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――
● ワシントン・コンセンサス、新自由主義
PS May 31, 2024
Still Haunted by the Washington Consensus
ANTARA HALDAR
PS Jun 4, 2024
What Comes After Neoliberalism?
Mehrsa Baradaran, Anne O. Krueger, Mariana Mazzucato, Dani Rodrik, Joseph E. Stiglitz, and Michael R. Strain
―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――
● AI規制、ロボット
PS May 31, 2024
The Right Way to Regulate AI
JOSHUA GANS
PS Jun 3, 2024
The High Cost of GPT-4o
ANGELA HUYUE ZHANG and S. ALEX YANG
NYT June 5, 2024
Will A.I. Be a Creator or a Destroyer of Worlds?
By Thomas B. Edsall
FT June 6, 2024
AI is a green curse as well as a blessing
John Thornhill
FT June 6, 2024
The robots preparing to get their hands on your lunch
Leo Lewis
―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――
● 政治経済学
PS May 31, 2024
A Plea for Political Economy
KAUSHIK BASU
―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――
● 中国、輸出、南シナ海
PS May 31, 2024
China’s Economy Cannot Export Its Problems Away
ALICIA GARCÍA-HERRERO and ALESSIO TERZI
FP MAY 31, 2024
The South China Sea Risks a Military Crisis
By Sarang Shidore, the director of the Quincy Institute’s Global South Program.
Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. delivers a speech during the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore.
FP JUNE 2, 2024
What If Israel Had Been in China?
By Harry Saunders, a graduate of Princeton University, where he studied history.
FP JUNE 3, 2024
Why Is Xi Not Fixing China’s Economy?
By Scott Kennedy, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
The Guardian, Tue 4 Jun 2024
China’s crackdown on Tiananmen memorials shows its obsession with security – and growing paranoia
Louisa Lim
FT June 4, 2024
China’s expat gap problem
Joe Leahy
FT June 5, 2024
China’s plan to sell cheap EVs to the rest of the world
Edward White in Shanghai, Michael Pooler in São Paulo, A. Anantha Lakshmi in Jakarta and Christine Murray in Mexico City
FP JUNE 6, 2024
China’s South Sea Aggression Is Backfiring
By Keith Johnson, a reporter at Foreign Policy covering geoeconomics and energy.
―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――
● US大統領選挙
NYT May 30, 2024
What if This Is Our Last Real Election?
By Paul Krugman
FT June 1, 2024
Return to Janesville — life after manufacturing in America’s heartland
Amy Goldstein
FT June 2, 2024
Conviction politics: Joe Biden sees opportunity in Trump’s guilty verdict
James Politi in Washington
FT June 2, 2024
Biden’s challenge runs deeper than ‘bad vibes’
Ruchir Sharma
The Guardian, Mon 3 Jun 2024
Crowing about the Trump verdict will only hurt Biden – populists thrive on claims of persecution
Simon Jenkins
The Guardian, Mon 3 Jun 2024
Why is a group of billionaires working to re-elect Trump?
Robert Reich
PS Jun 3, 2024
American Business Will Regret Writing Off Democracy
KATHARINA PISTOR
FT June 4, 2024
Why Trump continues to defy electoral gravity
Frank Luntz
FT June 5, 2024
What Hunter Biden tells us about America
Edward Luce
NYT June 5, 2024
To Win on Immigration, Biden Must Move the Debate Beyond the Border
By Andrea R. Flores
NYT June 4, 2024
The Republican Party’s Decay Began Long Before Trump
Ezra Klein
PS Jun 6, 2024
Is Biden Self-Destructing?
HAROLD JAMES
FP JUNE 6, 2024
Americans Don’t Want a Wartime President
By Mark Hannah, a senior fellow at the Institute for Global Affairs.
―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――
● スポーツ・ギャンブル
NYT May 31, 2024
Sports Gambling Is a Ticking Time Bomb
By Leigh Steinberg
―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――
● 南アフリカ
NYT June 1, 2024
South Africa Is Not a Metaphor
By Lydia Polgreen
FT June 3, 2024
South Africa on the precipice
PS Jun 3, 2024
The End of the ANC’s Single-Party Rule
ADEKEYE ADEBAJO
FT June 4, 2024
How the ANC can save South Africa
Alec Russell
―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――
● ロシア、軍事国家、ウクライナ
FT June 2, 2024
We need to put sand in the gears of the Russian war machine
Wally Adeyemo
FT June 3, 2024
Russia’s nuclear threats are losing their power
Gideon Rachman
FP JUNE 3, 2024
Now Is Not the Time to Negotiate With Putin
By Rajan Menon, the director of the grand strategy program at Defense Priorities, a professor emeritus at the City College of New York, and a senior research fellow at Columbia University.
PS Jun 4, 2024
Old and New Lessons from the Ukraine War
JOSEPH S. NYE, JR.
FP JUNE 4, 2024
Are Putin’s Nuclear Threats Working?
By Matthew Kroenig, a columnist at Foreign Policy and vice president and senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security.
FP JUNE 4, 2024
Europe Needs Forts Again
By Elisabeth Braw, a columnist at Foreign Policy and a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council.
PS Jun 5, 2024
The Ukraine War Threatens Russia’s Regional Influence
GALIP DALAY
PS Jun 6, 2024
NATO Must Not Go Wobbly on Ukraine
ANNA HUSARSKA and MYKOLA VIKNIANSKIY
―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――
● US外交、戦争
FP JUNE 2, 2024
Why Did America Stumble Into a Trap in Iraq?
By David Polansky, a political theorist and research fellow with the Institute for Peace and Diplomacy.
FP JUNE 3, 2024
The U.S. Needs a New Purpose in the Middle East
By Steven A. Cook, a columnist at Foreign Policy and the Eni Enrico Mattei senior fellow for Middle East and Africa studies at the Council on Foreign Relations.
FT June 5, 2024
Nationalism threatens the world order
Martin Wolf
FP JUNE 4, 2024
Biden’s Foreign-Policy Problem Is Incompetence
By Stephen M. Walt, a columnist at Foreign Policy and the Robert and Renée Belfer professor of international relations at Harvard University.
NYT June 4, 2024
Why We Must Keep the Memory of D-Day Alive
By Garrett M. Graff
NYT June 4, 2024
This D-Day, Europe Needs to Resolve to Get Its Act Together
By Bret Stephens
NYT June 6, 2024
Mitch McConnell: We Cannot Repeat the Mistakes of the 1930s
By Mitch McConnell
FP JUNE 6, 2024
A New Cold War Needs Its Own Rules
By Azeem Ibrahim, a columnist at Foreign Policy and a director at the Newlines Institute for Strategy and Policy.
―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――
● 気候変動
FP JUNE 2, 2024
No, It’s Not Too Late to Save the Planet
By Paul Hockenos, a Berlin-based journalist.
FP JUNE 3, 2024
Europe’s Green Moment Is Over
By Anchal Vohra, a columnist at Foreign Policy.
FP JUNE 3, 2024
Who Pays for Climate Action?
By Michael Franczak, a historian of American foreign relations and the world economy and an expert on global climate change policy and negotiations
PS Jun 5, 2024
The 1.5°C Target for Global Warming Must Prevail
JOERI ROGELJ
PS Jun 6, 2024
Europe Needs a Green Deal 2.0
FRANS TIMMERMANS
NYT June 6, 2024
Vermont Takes On Big Oil. Will Other States Follow?
By Lee Wasserman
―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――
● 観光規制
The Guardian, Mon 3 Jun 2024
The Guardian view on beach protests in the Balearics: locals need a better deal
Editorial
―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――
● アルゼンチン
FT June 3, 2024
Argentina’s Milei turns to an ‘anti-Milei’ to save his project
Ciara Nugent in Buenos Aires
―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――
● 女性
PS Jun 3, 2024
During This Super Election Year, More Women Are Needed at the Top
ELLEN JOHNSON SIRLEAF and BINAIFER NOWROJEE
―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――
● チリ
PS Jun 4, 2024
The Primacy of Political Order
ANDRÉS VELASCO
―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――
● スーダン
FP JUNE 5, 2024
‘Somalia on Steroids’: Sudan Conflict Escalates
By Robbie Gramer
FP JUNE 5, 2024
Sudanese Militias Are Committing Genocide in Darfur—Again
By Mutasim Ali, a legal advisor at the Raoul Wallenberg Centre for Human Rights, and Yonah Diamond, a senior legal counsel at the Raoul Wallenberg Centre for Human Rights.
―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――
● シンガポール
FP JUNE 5, 2024
What the West Can Learn From Singapore
By Graham Allison, a professor of government at the Harvard Kennedy School.
********************************
Cash for kids
International law: Lawfare vs Warfare
New Caledonia: The Noumea discord
Philippine security: Bangsamoro’s moment
Regional inequality: A tale of two Chinas
Old people: One way to stay spry
Swing states: Wisconsin: The country road to the White House
France: Looming trouble
Discrimination in Europe: Who hates whom?
The pro-natalist turn: Putting a price on them
Real-estate problem: Floor repairs
Free exchange: The old world
（コメント） 人口規模を維持する出生率（女性1人が2.1人の子どもを産む）を割り込む国が増えています。韓国は0.7で、今世紀末までに人口が60％減少する。世界中で人口が減少し、中国もインドも例外ではありません。出産を奨励する政策は、ほとんど効果がなく、財政的にもプラスにならないでしょう。年金、介護、医療の負担をめぐる政治対立が生じます。
資源や領海・領土をめぐる対立以上に、内政における地域格差、貧困地域の対策が政治を大きく左右することに気づきます。それが共通の背景となって、アメリカ大統領選挙、ヨーロッパの人種差別と極右の台頭、中国不動産バブルと政府介入、を解決困難なものにしています。
******************************
IPEの想像力 6/10/2024
グローバルな解体と再編は市場のダイナミズムです。「新自由主義」の成果は歴史が示しており、この先も継承されるだろう。批判はまちがっている、とA.クルーガーは考えます。
EU議会選挙で中道左派、環境、左派の議席は減り、中道右派は多数派を維持しますが、極右、右派が増えました。
「この偉大な愛国運動は、世界中で起きている国家への回帰に従ったものだ」と、フランスの右翼政党「国民連合（RN）」、ルペン前党首が勝利を理解するのは間違いだ、と思いました。
民主主義の容器として既存国家の統治能力が限界を超え、特に、産業の地理的再編、都市と農村の対立を政治的に受容できないまま、差別と憎悪、爆発を繰り返しているのではないでしょうか。
スナク首相だけでなく、マクロン大統領が議会解散・選挙を決断しました。ブレグジットの後も、移民・難民や地域の衰退・格差の問題を解決できていません。
2016年、トランプを生んだアメリカの選挙時に、インディアナ州マンシーを訪れたイギリスの社会学者Gary YoungeがThe Guardianに報告していました。
・・・何かが起こっています。しかも、私たちが考えていたよりも速いのです。トランプは Brexit に続き、マリーヌ・ル・ペンはトランプに続くかもしれません。私たちの政党はもはや、彼らが代表すると主張する人々とつながることができないようです。私たちの民主主義は私たちが思っていたよりも脆弱です。機能する民主主義を可能にする機関、つまり報道機関、議会、警察は、以前よりも信頼されていません。
大統領の選択を決めるウィスコンシン州についてThe Economistが、GMの工場が閉鎖された後の同州のジェーンズビルについてFTが、最近、報告しています。
****
右派はＥＵを解体するのでしょうか？ 諸国民・諸民族の群島国家にもどる？
イギリス首相となったスナクは、インド系移民家族の息子であり、インドの巨大財閥の娘と結婚し、超富裕層のための投資バンクのパートナーでした。
国家の運営をナショナリズムと投資銀行に委ねることが、ブレグジットの狂信に対する答えにはなりません。
二元論は誤りです。環境規制、炭素税vs農業、トラック運送業、インフレによる生活苦。それはポピュリズムに利用され、EUの官僚主義やマクロンの「傲慢さ」に対する不満と重なって有毒化しました。
ポピュリズムは過激化するのか？ 脱悪魔化・穏健化するのか？ ル・ペンに具体的な解決策はない、と言われます。若いバルデラ党首は、貧困地区で育った移民の子供です。ル・ペンはユーロ解体を主張せず、ＥＵ政治を保守的に再編したいのです。しかし、右派に政策合意はありません。
統治に失敗し、エリート支配への反乱、狂信者の独裁に向かうなら、有権者は離反するだろう、と見てマクロンは「ショック療法」を選んだのか。
民主主義の刷新、政策・統治能力の新次元、フロンティアを拓くのはだれか。温暖化防止より適応・移住対策。脱化石燃料より脱成長・脱格差。巨大都市より人口減少・分散型発展。
****
人口増加や都市化が、工業化とグローバリゼーションでGDPを増やした時代は、人類史の一つの段階として終わる。子どものいない社会、人口減少への適応が問われます。それが、階級戦争ではなく、進行中の「保守革命・右傾化」かもしれません。
国防だけでなく、出産・育児も分担し、社会が共有します。高等教育、豊かなミドル・クラス、老後の健康のために、女性も、男性も、家族の価値を再発見します。
移民・難民はグローバルな都市化です。アフリカの医療・学校改革、新しい産業革命に向けてＥＵが投資します。
******************************