IPEの果樹園2023
今週のReview
3/27-4/1
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イラク侵攻20周年 ・・・プーチン、ウクライナ ・・・SVB破綻 ・・・UK財政、成長 ・・・気候変動、水危機 ・・・共和党、トランプ、訴追 ・・・スイス、銀行救済 ・・・冷戦、大国政治 ・・・香港、シンガポール ・・・世界銀行、パキスタン ・・・モディ ・・・中国、TikTok、ウイグル ・・・習近平・プーチン会談 ・・・AI規制 ・・・フランス、年金、第5共和制 ・・・日本、防衛予算、インフレ ・・・リベラリズム ・・・パンデミック対策 ・・・ミャンマー、ウルグアイ、リビア、コソボ、タリバン ・・・UK政治 ・・・変動レート50年 ・・・緊縮財政 ・・・オランダ ・・・ドイツ ・・・パレスチナ、イスラエル ・・・ポーランド ・・・ケニア ・・・産業政策 ・・・人形の家
［Review関連コラム集］
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主要な出典 FP: Foreign Policy, FT: Financial Times, The Guardian, NYT: New York Times, PS: Project Syndicate, VOX: VoxEU.orgそして、The Economist (London)
［これは英文コラムの紹介です．私の関心に従って，www.DeepL.com/Translator（無料版）、Google翻訳を基に修正し、要点を紹介しています．正しい内容は必ず自分で確かめてください．著者と掲載機関の著作権に従います．］
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● イラク侵攻20周年
The Guardian, Fri 17 Mar 2023
The real lesson of the Iraq invasion? Beware spies and allies who would drag you to war
Jonathan Freedland
The Guardian, Fri 17 Mar 2023
On this day 20 years ago, Robin Cook tried to stop the Iraq war. I helped write that historic speech
David Clark
The Guardian, Fri 17 Mar 2023
We Iraqis had survived Saddam Hussein. It was the US invasion that destroyed our lives
Balsam Mustafa
The Guardian, Fri 17 Mar 2023
The Guardian view on Iraq, 20 years on: the costs of war
Editorial
PS Mar 17, 2023
Revisiting America’s War of Choice in Iraq
RICHARD HAASS
FP MARCH 17, 2023
The Lessons Not Learned From Iraq
By Michael Hirsh, a columnist for Foreign Policy.
FP MARCH 17, 2023
Iraq Must Not Squander Another Opportunity to Rebuild
By Mina Al-Oraibi, a columnist at Foreign Policy and the editor in chief of the National.
The Guardian, Sun 19 Mar 2023
The invasion of Iraq was a turning point on to a path that led towards Ukraine
Peter Beaumont
The Guardian, Mon 20 Mar 2023
‘Don’t Iraqi women weep when their children die?’ asked Tony Benn. But that couldn’t stop the war or Blair
Diane Abbott
The Guardian, Mon 20 Mar 2023
Compare Iraq with Ukraine. It’s clear the era of US global supremacy is over
Jonathan Steele
NYT March 21, 2023
20 Years On, I Don’t Regret Supporting the Iraq War
By Bret Stephens
FP MARCH 22, 2023
Iraqi Kurdistan’s House of Cards Is Collapsing
By Winthrop Rodgers, a journalist and analyst based in Sulaymaniyah, Iraq.
FT March 24, 2023
The tragedy of Iraq, 20 years on
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● プーチン、ウクライナ
The Guardian, Fri 17 Mar 2023
Putin enables the lifestyle of Russia’s elite – until they lose faith, there is little hope of peace
Olga Chyzh
FP MARCH 17, 2023
Putin Wanted by ICC Over Alleged War Crimes
By Amy Mackinnon, Christina Lu and Jack Detsch
FP MARCH 17, 2023
Even Recorded Murders Won’t Turn Russia Against the War
By Natalia Antonova, a writer, journalist, and online safety expert based in Washington.
FP MARCH 17, 2023
Crunch Time Looms for Black Sea Grain Export Deal
By Christina Lu and Robbie Gramer
FP MARCH 18, 2023
Russian Mercenaries Are Pushing France Out of Central Africa
By Justin Ling
FP MARCH 19, 2023
Putin’s War on Young People
By Lucian Kim, a global fellow with the Wilson Center in Washington and NPR’s former Moscow bureau chief.
PS Mar 20, 2023
Peace Requires Betrayal
SHLOMO BEN-AMI
FP MARCH 20, 2023
Even More Than Tanks and Planes, Ukraine Needs IFVs
By Franz-Stefan Gady, a senior fellow for cyber power and future conflict at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
NYT March 21, 2023
Break the Chain Between Russian Oligarchs and Managers, and You Break Everything
By Brooke Harrington
FP MARCH 21, 2023
It’s Easy But Wrong to Be Cynical About Putin’s Indictment
By Mark Lawrence Schrad, a professor of political science at Villanova University.
FP MARCH 21, 2023
Latvia Is Going on Offense Against Russian Culture
By Anchal Vohra, a Brussels-based columnist for Foreign Policy who writes about Europe, the Middle East and South Asia.
The Guardian, Wed 22 Mar 2023
Milosevic finally stood trial at The Hague – and Vladimir Putin isn’t above the law either
Steve Crawshaw
FT March 22, 2023
Saving Ukraine’s economy: the grain giant fighting for survival
John Paul Rathbone in Mykolayiv and Ben Hall in London
FP MARCH 22, 2023
The Nuclear Education of Vladimir Putin
By Amy J. Nelson, a David M. Rubenstein fellow at the Brookings Institution’s Foreign Policy program and Strobe Talbott Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology.
The Guardian, Thu 23 Mar 2023
The Guardian view on Ukraine and war crimes: the start of a case against Putin
Editorial
PS Mar 23, 2023
America’s Interest in Ending the Ukraine Crisis
BRAHMA CHELLANEY
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● SVB破綻
FT March 18, 2023
How Silicon Valley learnt to love the government
George Hammond in San Francisco and Elaine Moore in London
FT March 18, 2023
A week of banking turmoil
FT March 17, 2023
HSBC and the City won this round — but hard work lies ahead
Philip Augar
FT March 18, 2023
Are banks on the edge of another 2008-style precipice?
Patrick Jenkins
FT March 17, 2023
Time to cut banker pay once and for all
Stuart Kirk
FT March 17, 2023
What to do if your bank decides you are ‘dormant’
Robert Shrimsley
FT March 17, 2023
SVB shows why we should worry about a ‘cool’ bank
Anne-Sylvaine Chassany
PS Mar 17, 2023
Lessons from the SVB Collapse
LUCREZIA REICHLIN
PS Mar 17, 2023
It’s the Banking Regulations, Stupid
ANTONIO FOGLIA
NYT March 17, 2023
The Fed’s Balance Sheet Looks Like Silicon Valley Bank’s
By Peter Coy
FP MARCH 17, 2023
Adam Tooze: The Non-Bailout Bailout
By Cameron Abadi, a deputy editor at Foreign Policy.
FT March 18, 2023
Things are only getting harder for the Fed
Kenneth Rogoff
FT March 18, 2023
The tumult in Treasuries: are hedge funds partly to blame?
Katie Martin
SPIEGEL International 17.03.2023
SVB's European Shockwaves
Silicon Valley Brings Disruption to Global Finance
By Tim Bartz und Michael Brächer
FT March 19, 2023
Global banking is now inside Schrödinger’s box
Megan Greene
FT March 21, 2023
Why I never invest in bank shares
Terry Smith
FT March 21, 2023
How ‘competitive’ would you like your bank regulation now?
Helen Thomas
FT March 20, 2023
Banking turmoil intensifies the need for better Federal Reserve policymaking
Mohamed El-Erian
PS Mar 20, 2023
Price Stability vs. Financial Stability?
WILLEM H. BUITER
VoxEU / 20 Mar 2023
The Silicon Valley Bank collapse: Prudential regulation lessons for Europe and the world
Mathias Dewatripont, Peter Praet, André Sapir
VoxEU / 20 Mar 2023
How monetary policy affects bank lending and financial stability: A ‘credit creation theory of banking’ explanation
Peter Bofinger, Lisa Geißendörfer, Thomas Haas, Fabian Mayer
The Guardian, Tue 21 Mar 2023
Until bankers have more to lose themselves, collapses like SVB and Credit Suisse will keep happening
Natacha Postel-Vinay
FT March 21, 2023
Four ways to fix the bank problem
Martin Wolf
FT March 21, 2023
SVB lessons in the forgotten history of the Bank of the United States
Abby Joseph Cohen
PS Mar 21, 2023
The Fed Must Not Flinch
MICHAEL R. STRAIN
FT March 22, 2023
Banker accountability is easier to demand than deliver
Brooke Masters NYT March 21, 2023
How Big a Deal Is the Banking Mess?
By Paul Krugman
FT March 23, 2023
Bring on the near-misses to avoid the financial meltdowns
Gillian Tett
PS Mar 22, 2023
America’s Financial Regulatory System Is Still Broken
HOWARD DAVIES
NYT March 22, 2023
Seven Ideas to Prevent the Next Bank Crisis
By Peter Coy
FT March 24, 2023
American banks face a looming credit risk
Gillian Tett
FT March 24, 2023
Time to ask what the directors were doing at these failed banks
Andrew Edgecliffe-Johnson
FT March 24, 2023
Financial turmoil could end up doing rate-setters’ job for them
Claire Jones
FT March 23, 2023
Policymakers are bungling their response to failing banks
Martin Sandbu
PS Mar 23, 2023
The Simplest Fix for Banking
JAN EECKHOUT
NYT March 23, 2023
Banks Can’t Be Trusted. A ‘Golden Share’ Might Help.
By Saule Omarova
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● UK財政、成長
FT March 18, 2023
Labour and the Tories seem stuck in a big state echo chamber
Camilla Cavendish
The Guardian, Sun 19 Mar 2023
If it’s growth the chancellor wants, here’s one suggestion: rejoin the EU
William Keegan
FT March 20, 2023
A sensible strategy for the UK needs radical changes on pensions
Martin Wolf
FT March 23, 2023
Post-Brexit UK should pursue short-selling reforms to boost markets
Carson Block
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● 気候変動、水危機
FT March 17, 2023
The new weather forecast: cloudy with a chance of politicisation
Tony Barber
PS Mar 17, 2023
Confronting the Global Water Crisis
MARIANA MAZZUCATO, NGOZI OKONJO-IWEALA, JOHAN ROCKSTRÖM, and THARMAN SHANMUGARATNAM
The Guardian, Mon 20 Mar 2023
The Guardian view on the IPCC warning: a last chance to save the planet
Editorial
PS Mar 20, 2023
Waking Up to the World’s Water Crisis
QUENTIN GRAFTON, JOYEETA GUPTA, and AROMAR REVI
FT March 22, 2023
Years of climate scepticism have done untold damage
Pilita Clark
PS Mar 22, 2023
The Water Crisis Is a Vital Investment Opportunity
AMBROISE FAYOLLE and HENK OVINK
FT March 23, 2023
Solar power: Europe attempts to get out of China’s shadow
Yuan Yang in London, Alice Hancock in Brussels and Laura Pitel in Berlin
FT March 23, 2023
EU seeks to tone down the imperial style in search for critical minerals
Alan Beattie
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● 共和党、トランプ、訴追
NYT March 16, 2023
Trump and DeSantis Could Both Lose
By David Brooks
FT March 21, 2023
Don’t assume that DeSantis is a safe alternative to Trump
Janan Ganesh
FT March 22, 2023
It’s unwise to get Trump on a technicality
Edward Luce
NYT March 22, 2023
The Unsettling Truth About Trump’s First Great Victory
By Thomas B. Edsall
NYT March 22, 2023
The Politics of a Trump Indictment
By Ross Douthat
NYT March 22, 2023
Trump May Face Prosecution. America Faces a Test.
By Charles M. Blow
NYT March 22, 2023
Sex, Lies and … Trump. What More Can You Ask For?
By Gail Collins
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● スイス、銀行救済
FT March 19, 2023
Switzerland prepares emergency measures to deliver UBS takeover of Credit Suisse
Laura Noonan, Stephen Morris, James Fontanella-Khan, Arash Massoudi and Owen Walker
FT March 20, 2023
Fall of Credit Suisse shows more work is needed on bank risk
Jérôme Legras
FT March 21, 2023
How the Swiss ‘trinity’ forced UBS to save Credit Suisse
Stephen Morris, James Fontanella-Khan and Arash Massoudi in London
FT March 21, 2023
Investors in limbo land as trust in market rules wavers
Gillian Tett
FT March 21, 2023
A very Swiss bank rescue
FT March 20, 2023
There are several reasons to worry about the health of Europe’s banks
Martin Arnold in Frankfurt
FT March 22, 2023
What the takeover of Credit Suisse means for UBS
Owen Walker in Paris
VoxEU / 22 Mar 2023
The Swiss authorities enforced a legitimate going concern conversion
Enrico Perotti
FT March 24, 2023
Credit Suisse’s fate casts a shadow over the European banking sector
Tidjane Thiam
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● 冷戦、大国政治
FT March 18, 2023
Can war games really help us predict who will win a conflict?
Jacquelyn Schneider
PS Mar 20, 2023
What Do America’s Spies Really Think About China?
KENT HARRINGTON
FP MARCH 20, 2023
A Coup Would Put Pakistan Squarely in China’s Bloc
By Azeem Ibrahim, a columnist at Foreign Policy and a director at the Newlines Institute for Strategy and Policy.
FP MARCH 20, 2023
It’s a New Great Game. Again.
By Lynne O’Donnell, a columnist at Foreign Policy and an Australian journalist and author.
PS Mar 21, 2023
Richard Haass
Says More…
FP MARCH 20, 2023
The Real Risk of the China Select Committee
By Anatol Klass, a doctoral candidate in Chinese history at the University of California, Berkeley and an Ernest May fellow in history and public policy at the Harvard Kennedy School.
FP MARCH 21, 2023
The U.S. Has a Troublesome Asian Ally Against China
By Nick Aspinwall, a journalist based in New York.
FP MARCH 21, 2023
Why Washington Should Say No to Riyadh
By Bilal Y. Saab, a senior fellow and director of the Defense and Security Program at the Middle East Institute.
The Guardian, Wed 22 Mar 2023
Western democracy is weaker in this new cold war than it was in the first one
Rafael Behr
NYT March 22, 2023
The U.S. Is Not an Indispensable Peacemaker
By Trita Parsi
NYT March 23, 2023
The Cold War With China Is Changing Everything
By David Brooks
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● 香港、シンガポール
FT March 17, 2023
When Hong Kong stood still
Thomas Hale
FT March 20, 2023
Singapore and Hong Kong vie to be the Caymans of Asia
Mercedes Ruehl in Singapore, Leo Lewis in Tokyo and Kaye Wiggins and Chan Ho-him in Hong Kong
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● 世界銀行、パキスタン
NYT March 18, 2023
Humanity Is Facing a Great Injustice. The World Bank Must Respond.
By The Editorial Board
NYT March 17, 2023
Stop the Partisan Bickering. We Need Smart Solutions to Save Our Banking System.
By Jay Clayton and Gary Cohn
PS Mar 21, 2023
What the World Bank Can Do About Climate Change
PINELOPI KOUJIANOU GOLDBERG
FP MARCH 21, 2023
Politics Are Holding Pakistan’s Economy Hostage
By Lynne O’Donnell, a columnist at Foreign Policy and an Australian journalist and author.
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● モディ
NYT March 18, 2023
He’s the World’s Most Popular Leader. Beware.
By Nicholas Kristof
FP MARCH 18, 2023
How Modi and Bibi Built a Military Alliance
By Sumit Ganguly, a columnist at Foreign Policy and a visiting fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University.
NYT March 22, 2023
Can’t Read? Here’s a ‘Barefoot College’ for You.
By Nicholas Kristof
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● 中国、TikTok、ウイグル
NYT March 18, 2023
Being an Open and Democratic Country Does Not Mean Being a Sucker
By Peter Harrell and Tim Wu
FP MARCH 20, 2023
The Witness
By Amy Mackinnon, a national security and intelligence reporter at Foreign Policy.
PS Mar 21, 2023
Reimagining Development
ANDREW SHENG and XIAO GENG
FT March 22, 2023
National security is teaching the US to love tech controls
Marietje Schaake
FP MARCH 23, 2023
UNESCO Made Ukraine a Priority, but Xinjiang Fell By the Wayside
By Liam Scott
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● 習近平・プーチン会談
The Observer, Sun 19 Mar 2023
The Observer view on how Xi Jinping plans to use his meeting with war crimes suspect Vladimir Putin
Observer editorial
FT March 20, 2023
The real meaning of Xi’s visit to Putin
Gideon Rachman
FP MARCH 20, 2023
If China Arms Russia, the U.S. Should Kill China’s Aircraft Industry
By Richard Aboulafia, a managing director at AeroDynamic Advisory.
FP MARCH 21, 2023
Can Russia Get Used to Being China’s Little Brother?
By Philipp Ivanov, the Fulbright scholar in Australian-United States Alliance Studies and a visiting research fellow at Georgetown University.
The Guardian, Wed 22 Mar 2023
Putin should be under no illusion – Xi is not Russia’s knight in shining armour
Olga Chyzh
FT March 23, 2023
A dangerous friendship
The Guardian, Fri 24 Mar 2023
Brokering peace in Ukraine would be good for Xi and China: is he adroit enough to pull it off?
Yu Jie
FP MARCH 23, 2023
Xi and Putin Have the Most Consequential Undeclared Alliance in the World
By Graham Allison, a professor of government at the Harvard Kennedy School.
FP MARCH 23, 2023
Russia Has the Hydrocarbons, but China Has the Cash
By Christina Lu
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● AI規制
FT March 19, 2023
We need to create guardrails for AI
Rana Foroohar
NYT March 21, 2023
Our New Promethean Moment
By Thomas L. Friedman
FP MARCH 21, 2023
How AI Could Revolutionize Diplomacy
By Andrew Moore, chief of staff to former Google CEO Eric Schmidt.
PS Mar 23, 2023
Artificial Idiocy
SLAVOJ ŽIŽEK
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● フランス、年金、第5共和制
FT March 19, 2023
Macron’s pension reform muddle
FT March 24, 2023
Is France on the road to a Sixth Republic?
Simon Kuper
NYT March 24, 2023
France Is Furious
By Cole Stangler
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● 日本、防衛予算、インフレ
FT March 19, 2023
Japan’s biggest defence fair raises questions about military expansion
Leo Lewis
FP MARCH 20, 2023
Japan Has Raised Inflation but Can’t Shake Stagnation
By William Sposato, a Tokyo-based journalist.
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● リベラリズム
FT March 18, 2023
The useful fuzziness of liberalism
Janan Ganesh
FT March 23, 2023
How European entrepreneurs can live the American dream
John Thornhill
FT March 24, 2023
Conservatives win some culture battles, but they are losing the war
John Burn-Murdoch
NYT March 23, 2023
Liberal Professors Can Rescue the G.O.P.
By Jon A. Shields
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● パンデミック対策
NYT March 19, 2023
Bill Gates: ‘I Worry We’re Making Those Same Mistakes Again’
By Bill Gates
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● ミャンマー、ウルグアイ、リビア、コソボ、タリバン
NYT March 19, 2023
My Dangerous, Lonely Life in Myanmar’s Resistance
By Nan Lin
FT March 21, 2023
Uruguay’s difficult history is still being largely ignored
Lucinda Elliott
FP MARCH 21, 2023
Libya Wants Elections but Needs More Than a Ballot Box
By Robbie Gramer and Liam Scott
FP MARCH 22, 2023
Kosovo Has a Deal—if the West Can Save It
By Edward P. Joseph, a conflict management expert who teaches at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.
FP MARCH 23, 2023
Keep Talking to the Taliban
By Adam Weinstein, a research fellow at the Quincy Institute.
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● UK政治
The Guardian, Mon 20 Mar 2023
Of course Boris Johnson is guilty of misleading parliament – stand by for another Tory civil war
Simon Jenkins
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● 変動レート50年
PS Mar 20, 2023
Fifty Years of Floating Currencies
JEFFREY FRANKEL
FT March 23, 2023
Asia needs a more effective financial safety net
Rhee Chang-yong
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● 緊縮財政
PS Mar 22, 2023
Who Gets Squeezed by Austerity?
CHRISTY BRAHAM
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● オランダ
FP MARCH 20, 2023
The Netherlands’ Eternal Prime Minister Survives Another Populist Wave
By Stan Veuger, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.
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● ドイツ
FT March 21, 2023
A reckoning on Germany’s Russia policy is long overdue
Constanze Stelzenmüller YESTERDAY
FP MARCH 22, 2023
Skilled Migrants Aren’t Interested in Germany
By Paul Hockenos, a Berlin-based journalist.
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● パレスチナ、イスラエル
PS Mar 21, 2023
Hell in the Holy Land
CARL BILDT
FP MARCH 23, 2023
Netanyahu’s Legal Crusade Is Sparking a Military Backlash in Israel
By Amos Harel, the defense analyst for the Israeli newspaper Haaretz.
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● ポーランド
FP MARCH 21, 2023
How Poland Distorts Its Holocaust History
By Daniel Schatz, a visiting scholar at Georgetown University and a writer on international affairs.
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● ケニア
FT March 22, 2023
In drought-stricken Kenya, dead livestock tell of livelihoods lost
David Pilling
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● 産業政策
PS Mar 22, 2023
America’s Industrial Policy Is Counterproductive
ANNE O. KRUEGER
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● 人形の家
NYT March 23, 2023
Women Are Still Stuck in ‘A Doll’s House’
By Pamela Paul
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How to avoid a third world war
Emmanuel Macron: Trouble on two fronts
Defending Taiwan: Storm warning
Democratic bench: Say it ain’t Joe
Argentina: How not to deal with China
Taiwan: Frontline Formosa
Macron and the world: Perpetual motion
China Inc in the West: Seizing the moment
（コメント） 覇権的な国際秩序の移行期に、通貨危機や世界不況、軍事衝突が頻発するという予想は以前から広く懸念されていたものです。米中の軍事関係者は、ますます残された時間がないことを意識し、準備に奔走している、と知りました。
マクロン大統領やバイデン大統領の姿勢が動揺すれば、それは国際秩序に速やかに危機を呼ぶことになります。国際政治における課題を解決する方策は容易に見つまりません。
台湾の半導体産業やハイテク産業、西側の豊かな消費者に浸透する新興の中国企業群が、米中衝突を時代遅れにするような政治的条件を、各国で競い合うと思います。
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IPEの想像力 3/27/2023
卒業式の日、就職戦線を終えて、若者たちは社会に役立つ意気込みにあふれていました。しかし、政府は防衛費倍増と基地建設を急いでおり、岸田首相はキーウ訪問をG7主宰の準備として実現しています。
「アメリカがアジアで軍備増強と同盟諸国の軍事力強化を求める中、2つの問題が現れる。台湾を防衛するために、核大国と直接に戦争するリスクを冒すのか？ それはウクライナで避けてきたことだ。また、アジアで中国と軍備拡大競争をすることが、防ごうとしている米中戦争を、むしろ挑発することにならないか？」（The Economist March 11th 2023）
すでに自衛隊に参加している若者たちは、台湾海峡有事の意味を、どのように学んでいるのだろうか、と私は思います。そのとき彼・彼女は、何のために命を懸けて戦うのか？
「中国は、威圧的ではあるが戦争行為ではない「グレーゾーン」戦術を使用して、自治の島を封鎖し、経済と士気を低下させるだろう。あるいは、グアムと日本の米軍基地にミサイル先制攻撃を仕掛け、水陸両用攻撃への道を切り開くこともできる。」
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拙著『ブレグジット×トランプの時代』では、The Economistの第2次朝鮮戦争や、E. Luceの台湾海峡危機（トランプと習近平の軍事衝突）に関する架空のプーチンによる仲裁を取り上げました。The Economistは米中衝突が迫る台湾の特集です。
要点1：多くの日本人が知らないまま、開戦の危機は急速に高まっている。しかも、中国と台湾の複雑な関係は、台湾の歴史から生じた。（大陸における国共内戦と、敗走した蒋介石による台湾支配。国民党による独裁体制。民主化と、独立を支持する民進党の総裁誕生。）
要点2：中国・人民解放軍の台湾侵攻に対する最も重要な防壁は台湾経済とその半導体産業である。米中ともに、超高度な半導体製造企業（TSMC）を求めて産業・貿易政策を進めている。
要点3：アメリカの戦術的な曖昧さと各大統領の姿勢は不安定要素である。他方、北京は、台湾住民のアイデンティティーに影響を及ぼす情報操作、フェイク、ネット上の攻撃を強めている。
要点4：時代錯誤の戦争計画ではなく、ウクライナの防衛戦争から学び、侵攻が中国共産党に耐えられないコストをもたらすと理解できる「ヤマアラシ」型要塞化を進めるべきだ。
要点5：リトアニアや、米欧日の民主的政府による台湾支持が欠かせない。2024年の台湾総統選挙は、新ビジョンと新世代の政治・社会運動を刺激する焦点となる。
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性格の異なる２つの帝国がぶつかり合う世界で、民主的な都市国家は、交易と思想の自由を掲げて連携します。世界の各地から、そして、米中の国内でも。
逆説のブレグジット（統合化プロジェクトからの離反と、再統合化への理想的モデルの模索）と呼べるでしょう。民主的な意思決定を重視する、という北京との新しい合意、アジア全域の貿易・投資協定と経済協力会議、地域安全保障、為替・通貨安定化基金、それらを前提に、台湾が中国のもっとも緊密な同胞である、と認め合う目標を政治が共有するとき、戦争の危機は去ります。
アジア諸国は北京の平和的な秩序構築を歓迎するでしょう。台湾はアジアの平和と繁栄を支える民主的なガバナンスのシンボルとなり、日本は率先して中台の友好関係を深めます。そのとき中国は、国民党との内戦だけでなく、アメリカとの冷戦にも平和的に勝利し、新秩序を宣言します。
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「台湾が単独で攻撃に抵抗できるのは数日または数週間だけであり、いかなる紛争もすぐに超大国の軍事衝突に発展する可能性がある。」
香港とウクライナを経験した世界が、中国の言説に厳しい評価をするのは当然です。それを克服する責任が、台湾ではなく、中国にとって非常に重要であると理解するときが来ます。北京が視点を変えることは大きなアピールになるからです。
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