IPEの果樹園2023

今週のReview

3/27-4/1

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イラク侵攻20周年 ・・・プーチン、ウクライナ ・・・SVB破綻 ・・・UK財政、成長 ・・・気候変動、水危機 ・・・共和党、トランプ、訴追 ・・・スイス、銀行救済 ・・・冷戦、大国政治 ・・・香港、シンガポール ・・・世界銀行、パキスタン ・・・モディ ・・・中国、TikTok、ウイグル ・・・習近平・プーチン会談 ・・・AI規制 ・・・フランス、年金、第5共和制 ・・・日本、防衛予算、インフレ ・・・リベラリズム ・・・パンデミック対策 ・・・ミャンマー、ウルグアイ、リビア、コソボ、タリバン ・・・UK政治 ・・・変動レート50年 ・・・緊縮財政 ・・・オランダ ・・・ドイツ ・・・パレスチナ、イスラエル ・・・ポーランド ・・・ケニア ・・・産業政策 ・・・人形の家

Review関連コラム集]

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主要な出典 FP: Foreign Policy, FT: Financial Times, The Guardian, NYT: New York Times, PS: Project Syndicate, VOX: VoxEU.orgそして、The Economist (London)

[これは英文コラムの紹介です.私の関心に従って,www.DeepL.com/Translator(無料版)、Google翻訳を基に修正し、要点を紹介しています.正しい内容は必ず自分で確かめてください.著者と掲載機関の著作権に従います.] 

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 イラク侵攻20周年

The Guardian, Fri 17 Mar 2023

The real lesson of the Iraq invasion? Beware spies and allies who would drag you to war

Jonathan Freedland

The Guardian, Fri 17 Mar 2023

On this day 20 years ago, Robin Cook tried to stop the Iraq war. I helped write that historic speech

David Clark

The Guardian, Fri 17 Mar 2023

We Iraqis had survived Saddam Hussein. It was the US invasion that destroyed our lives

Balsam Mustafa

The Guardian, Fri 17 Mar 2023

The Guardian view on Iraq, 20 years on: the costs of war

Editorial

PS Mar 17, 2023

Revisiting America’s War of Choice in Iraq

RICHARD HAASS

FP MARCH 17, 2023

The Lessons Not Learned From Iraq

By Michael Hirsh, a columnist for Foreign Policy.

FP MARCH 17, 2023

Iraq Must Not Squander Another Opportunity to Rebuild

By Mina Al-Oraibi, a columnist at Foreign Policy and the editor in chief of the National.

The Guardian, Sun 19 Mar 2023

The invasion of Iraq was a turning point on to a path that led towards Ukraine

Peter Beaumont

The Guardian, Mon 20 Mar 2023

Don’t Iraqi women weep when their children die?’ asked Tony Benn. But that couldn’t stop the war or Blair

Diane Abbott

The Guardian, Mon 20 Mar 2023

Compare Iraq with Ukraine. It’s clear the era of US global supremacy is over

Jonathan Steele

NYT March 21, 2023

20 Years On, I Don’t Regret Supporting the Iraq War

By Bret Stephens

FP MARCH 22, 2023

Iraqi Kurdistan’s House of Cards Is Collapsing

By Winthrop Rodgers, a journalist and analyst based in Sulaymaniyah, Iraq.

FT March 24, 2023

The tragedy of Iraq, 20 years on

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 プーチン、ウクライナ

The Guardian, Fri 17 Mar 2023

Putin enables the lifestyle of Russia’s elite – until they lose faith, there is little hope of peace

Olga Chyzh

FP MARCH 17, 2023

Putin Wanted by ICC Over Alleged War Crimes

By Amy Mackinnon, Christina Lu and Jack Detsch

FP MARCH 17, 2023

Even Recorded Murders Won’t Turn Russia Against the War

By Natalia Antonova, a writer, journalist, and online safety expert based in Washington.

FP MARCH 17, 2023

Crunch Time Looms for Black Sea Grain Export Deal

By Christina Lu and Robbie Gramer

FP MARCH 18, 2023

Russian Mercenaries Are Pushing France Out of Central Africa

By Justin Ling

FP MARCH 19, 2023

Putin’s War on Young People

By Lucian Kim, a global fellow with the Wilson Center in Washington and NPR’s former Moscow bureau chief.

PS Mar 20, 2023

Peace Requires Betrayal

SHLOMO BEN-AMI

FP MARCH 20, 2023

Even More Than Tanks and Planes, Ukraine Needs IFVs

By Franz-Stefan Gady, a senior fellow for cyber power and future conflict at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

NYT March 21, 2023

Break the Chain Between Russian Oligarchs and Managers, and You Break Everything

By Brooke Harrington

FP MARCH 21, 2023

It’s Easy But Wrong to Be Cynical About Putin’s Indictment

By Mark Lawrence Schrad, a professor of political science at Villanova University.

FP MARCH 21, 2023

Latvia Is Going on Offense Against Russian Culture

By Anchal Vohra, a Brussels-based columnist for Foreign Policy who writes about Europe, the Middle East and South Asia.

The Guardian, Wed 22 Mar 2023

Milosevic finally stood trial at The Hague – and Vladimir Putin isn’t above the law either

Steve Crawshaw

FT March 22, 2023

Saving Ukraine’s economy: the grain giant fighting for survival

John Paul Rathbone in Mykolayiv and Ben Hall in London

FP MARCH 22, 2023

The Nuclear Education of Vladimir Putin

By Amy J. Nelson, a David M. Rubenstein fellow at the Brookings Institution’s Foreign Policy program and Strobe Talbott Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology.

The Guardian, Thu 23 Mar 2023

The Guardian view on Ukraine and war crimes: the start of a case against Putin

Editorial

PS Mar 23, 2023

America’s Interest in Ending the Ukraine Crisis

BRAHMA CHELLANEY

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 SVB破綻

FT March 18, 2023

How Silicon Valley learnt to love the government

George Hammond in San Francisco and Elaine Moore in London

FT March 18, 2023

A week of banking turmoil

FT March 17, 2023

HSBC and the City won this round — but hard work lies ahead

Philip Augar

FT March 18, 2023

Are banks on the edge of another 2008-style precipice?

Patrick Jenkins

FT March 17, 2023

Time to cut banker pay once and for all

Stuart Kirk

FT March 17, 2023

What to do if your bank decides you are ‘dormant’

Robert Shrimsley

FT March 17, 2023

SVB shows why we should worry about a ‘cool’ bank

Anne-Sylvaine Chassany

PS Mar 17, 2023

Lessons from the SVB Collapse

LUCREZIA REICHLIN

PS Mar 17, 2023

It’s the Banking Regulations, Stupid

ANTONIO FOGLIA

NYT March 17, 2023

The Fed’s Balance Sheet Looks Like Silicon Valley Bank’s

By Peter Coy

FP MARCH 17, 2023

Adam Tooze: The Non-Bailout Bailout

By Cameron Abadi, a deputy editor at Foreign Policy.

FT March 18, 2023

Things are only getting harder for the Fed

Kenneth Rogoff

FT March 18, 2023

The tumult in Treasuries: are hedge funds partly to blame?

Katie Martin

SPIEGEL International 17.03.2023

SVB's European Shockwaves

Silicon Valley Brings Disruption to Global Finance

By Tim Bartz und Michael Brächer

FT March 19, 2023

Global banking is now inside Schrödinger’s box

Megan Greene

FT March 21, 2023

Why I never invest in bank shares

Terry Smith

FT March 21, 2023

How ‘competitive’ would you like your bank regulation now? 

Helen Thomas

FT March 20, 2023

Banking turmoil intensifies the need for better Federal Reserve policymaking

Mohamed El-Erian

PS Mar 20, 2023

Price Stability vs. Financial Stability?

WILLEM H. BUITER

VoxEU / 20 Mar 2023

The Silicon Valley Bank collapse: Prudential regulation lessons for Europe and the world

Mathias Dewatripont, Peter Praet, André Sapir

VoxEU / 20 Mar 2023

How monetary policy affects bank lending and financial stability: A ‘credit creation theory of banking’ explanation

Peter Bofinger, Lisa Geißendörfer, Thomas Haas, Fabian Mayer

The Guardian, Tue 21 Mar 2023

Until bankers have more to lose themselves, collapses like SVB and Credit Suisse will keep happening

Natacha Postel-Vinay

FT March 21, 2023

Four ways to fix the bank problem

Martin Wolf

FT March 21, 2023

SVB lessons in the forgotten history of the Bank of the United States

Abby Joseph Cohen

PS Mar 21, 2023

The Fed Must Not Flinch

MICHAEL R. STRAIN

FT March 22, 2023

Banker accountability is easier to demand than deliver

Brooke Masters NYT March 21, 2023

How Big a Deal Is the Banking Mess?

By Paul Krugman

FT March 23, 2023

Bring on the near-misses to avoid the financial meltdowns

Gillian Tett

PS Mar 22, 2023

America’s Financial Regulatory System Is Still Broken

HOWARD DAVIES

NYT March 22, 2023

Seven Ideas to Prevent the Next Bank Crisis

By Peter Coy

FT March 24, 2023

American banks face a looming credit risk

Gillian Tett

FT March 24, 2023

Time to ask what the directors were doing at these failed banks

Andrew Edgecliffe-Johnson

FT March 24, 2023

Financial turmoil could end up doing rate-setters’ job for them

Claire Jones

FT March 23, 2023

Policymakers are bungling their response to failing banks

Martin Sandbu

PS Mar 23, 2023

The Simplest Fix for Banking

JAN EECKHOUT

NYT March 23, 2023

Banks Can’t Be Trusted. A ‘Golden Share’ Might Help.

By Saule Omarova

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 UK財政、成長

FT March 18, 2023

Labour and the Tories seem stuck in a big state echo chamber

Camilla Cavendish

The Guardian, Sun 19 Mar 2023

If it’s growth the chancellor wants, here’s one suggestion: rejoin the EU

William Keegan

FT March 20, 2023

A sensible strategy for the UK needs radical changes on pensions

Martin Wolf

FT March 23, 2023

Post-Brexit UK should pursue short-selling reforms to boost markets

Carson Block

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 気候変動、水危機

FT March 17, 2023

The new weather forecast: cloudy with a chance of politicisation

Tony Barber

PS Mar 17, 2023

Confronting the Global Water Crisis

MARIANA MAZZUCATO, NGOZI OKONJO-IWEALA, JOHAN ROCKSTRÖM, and THARMAN SHANMUGARATNAM

The Guardian, Mon 20 Mar 2023

The Guardian view on the IPCC warning: a last chance to save the planet

Editorial

PS Mar 20, 2023

Waking Up to the World’s Water Crisis

QUENTIN GRAFTON, JOYEETA GUPTA, and AROMAR REVI

FT March 22, 2023

Years of climate scepticism have done untold damage

Pilita Clark

PS Mar 22, 2023

The Water Crisis Is a Vital Investment Opportunity

AMBROISE FAYOLLE and HENK OVINK

FT March 23, 2023

Solar power: Europe attempts to get out of China’s shadow

Yuan Yang in London, Alice Hancock in Brussels and Laura Pitel in Berlin

FT March 23, 2023

EU seeks to tone down the imperial style in search for critical minerals

Alan Beattie

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 共和党、トランプ、訴追

NYT March 16, 2023

Trump and DeSantis Could Both Lose

By David Brooks

FT March 21, 2023

Don’t assume that DeSantis is a safe alternative to Trump

Janan Ganesh

FT March 22, 2023

It’s unwise to get Trump on a technicality

Edward Luce

NYT March 22, 2023

The Unsettling Truth About Trump’s First Great Victory

By Thomas B. Edsall

NYT March 22, 2023

The Politics of a Trump Indictment

By Ross Douthat

NYT March 22, 2023

Trump May Face Prosecution. America Faces a Test.

By Charles M. Blow

NYT March 22, 2023

Sex, Lies and … Trump. What More Can You Ask For?

By Gail Collins

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 スイス、銀行救済

FT March 19, 2023

Switzerland prepares emergency measures to deliver UBS takeover of Credit Suisse

Laura Noonan, Stephen Morris, James Fontanella-Khan, Arash Massoudi and Owen Walker

FT March 20, 2023

Fall of Credit Suisse shows more work is needed on bank risk

Jérôme Legras

FT March 21, 2023

How the Swiss ‘trinity’ forced UBS to save Credit Suisse

Stephen Morris, James Fontanella-Khan and Arash Massoudi in London

FT March 21, 2023

Investors in limbo land as trust in market rules wavers

Gillian Tett

FT March 21, 2023

A very Swiss bank rescue

FT March 20, 2023

There are several reasons to worry about the health of Europe’s banks

Martin Arnold in Frankfurt

FT March 22, 2023

What the takeover of Credit Suisse means for UBS

Owen Walker in Paris

VoxEU / 22 Mar 2023

The Swiss authorities enforced a legitimate going concern conversion

Enrico Perotti

FT March 24, 2023

Credit Suisse’s fate casts a shadow over the European banking sector

Tidjane Thiam

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 冷戦、大国政治

FT March 18, 2023

Can war games really help us predict who will win a conflict?

Jacquelyn Schneider

PS Mar 20, 2023

What Do America’s Spies Really Think About China?

KENT HARRINGTON

FP MARCH 20, 2023

A Coup Would Put Pakistan Squarely in China’s Bloc

By Azeem Ibrahim, a columnist at Foreign Policy and a director at the Newlines Institute for Strategy and Policy.

FP MARCH 20, 2023

It’s a New Great Game. Again.

By Lynne O’Donnell, a columnist at Foreign Policy and an Australian journalist and author.

PS Mar 21, 2023

Richard Haass

Says More…

FP MARCH 20, 2023

The Real Risk of the China Select Committee

By Anatol Klass, a doctoral candidate in Chinese history at the University of California, Berkeley and an Ernest May fellow in history and public policy at the Harvard Kennedy School.

FP MARCH 21, 2023

The U.S. Has a Troublesome Asian Ally Against China

By Nick Aspinwall, a journalist based in New York.

FP MARCH 21, 2023

Why Washington Should Say No to Riyadh

By Bilal Y. Saab, a senior fellow and director of the Defense and Security Program at the Middle East Institute.

The Guardian, Wed 22 Mar 2023

Western democracy is weaker in this new cold war than it was in the first one

Rafael Behr

NYT March 22, 2023

The U.S. Is Not an Indispensable Peacemaker

By Trita Parsi

NYT March 23, 2023

The Cold War With China Is Changing Everything

By David Brooks

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 香港、シンガポール

FT March 17, 2023

When Hong Kong stood still

Thomas Hale

FT March 20, 2023

Singapore and Hong Kong vie to be the Caymans of Asia

Mercedes Ruehl in Singapore, Leo Lewis in Tokyo and Kaye Wiggins and Chan Ho-him in Hong Kong

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 世界銀行、パキスタン

NYT March 18, 2023

Humanity Is Facing a Great Injustice. The World Bank Must Respond.

By The Editorial Board

NYT March 17, 2023

Stop the Partisan Bickering. We Need Smart Solutions to Save Our Banking System.

By Jay Clayton and Gary Cohn

PS Mar 21, 2023

What the World Bank Can Do About Climate Change

PINELOPI KOUJIANOU GOLDBERG

FP MARCH 21, 2023

Politics Are Holding Pakistan’s Economy Hostage

By Lynne O’Donnell, a columnist at Foreign Policy and an Australian journalist and author.

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 モディ

NYT March 18, 2023

He’s the World’s Most Popular Leader. Beware.

By Nicholas Kristof

FP MARCH 18, 2023

How Modi and Bibi Built a Military Alliance

By Sumit Ganguly, a columnist at Foreign Policy and a visiting fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University.

NYT March 22, 2023

Can’t Read? Here’s a ‘Barefoot College’ for You.

By Nicholas Kristof

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 中国、TikTok、ウイグル

NYT March 18, 2023

Being an Open and Democratic Country Does Not Mean Being a Sucker

By Peter Harrell and Tim Wu

FP MARCH 20, 2023

The Witness

By Amy Mackinnon, a national security and intelligence reporter at Foreign Policy.

PS Mar 21, 2023

Reimagining Development

ANDREW SHENG and XIAO GENG

FT March 22, 2023

National security is teaching the US to love tech controls

Marietje Schaake

FP MARCH 23, 2023

UNESCO Made Ukraine a Priority, but Xinjiang Fell By the Wayside

By Liam Scott

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 習近平・プーチン会談

The Observer, Sun 19 Mar 2023

The Observer view on how Xi Jinping plans to use his meeting with war crimes suspect Vladimir Putin

Observer editorial

FT March 20, 2023

The real meaning of Xi’s visit to Putin

Gideon Rachman

FP MARCH 20, 2023

If China Arms Russia, the U.S. Should Kill China’s Aircraft Industry

By Richard Aboulafia, a managing director at AeroDynamic Advisory.

FP MARCH 21, 2023

Can Russia Get Used to Being China’s Little Brother?

By Philipp Ivanov, the Fulbright scholar in Australian-United States Alliance Studies and a visiting research fellow at Georgetown University.

The Guardian, Wed 22 Mar 2023

Putin should be under no illusion – Xi is not Russia’s knight in shining armour

Olga Chyzh

FT March 23, 2023

A dangerous friendship

The Guardian, Fri 24 Mar 2023

Brokering peace in Ukraine would be good for Xi and China: is he adroit enough to pull it off?

Yu Jie

FP MARCH 23, 2023

Xi and Putin Have the Most Consequential Undeclared Alliance in the World

By Graham Allison, a professor of government at the Harvard Kennedy School.

FP MARCH 23, 2023

Russia Has the Hydrocarbons, but China Has the Cash

By Christina Lu

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 AI規制

FT March 19, 2023

We need to create guardrails for AI

Rana Foroohar

NYT March 21, 2023

Our New Promethean Moment

By Thomas L. Friedman

FP MARCH 21, 2023

How AI Could Revolutionize Diplomacy

By Andrew Moore, chief of staff to former Google CEO Eric Schmidt.

PS Mar 23, 2023

Artificial Idiocy

SLAVOJ ŽIŽEK

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 フランス、年金、第5共和制

FT March 19, 2023

Macron’s pension reform muddle

FT March 24, 2023

Is France on the road to a Sixth Republic?

Simon Kuper

NYT March 24, 2023

France Is Furious

By Cole Stangler

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 日本、防衛予算、インフレ

FT March 19, 2023

Japan’s biggest defence fair raises questions about military expansion

Leo Lewis

FP MARCH 20, 2023

Japan Has Raised Inflation but Can’t Shake Stagnation

By William Sposato, a Tokyo-based journalist.

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 リベラリズム

FT March 18, 2023

The useful fuzziness of liberalism

Janan Ganesh

FT March 23, 2023

How European entrepreneurs can live the American dream

John Thornhill

FT March 24, 2023

Conservatives win some culture battles, but they are losing the war

John Burn-Murdoch

NYT March 23, 2023

Liberal Professors Can Rescue the G.O.P.

By Jon A. Shields

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 パンデミック対策

NYT March 19, 2023

Bill Gates: ‘I Worry We’re Making Those Same Mistakes Again’

By Bill Gates

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 ミャンマー、ウルグアイ、リビア、コソボ、タリバン

NYT March 19, 2023

My Dangerous, Lonely Life in Myanmar’s Resistance

By Nan Lin

FT March 21, 2023

Uruguay’s difficult history is still being largely ignored

Lucinda Elliott

FP MARCH 21, 2023

Libya Wants Elections but Needs More Than a Ballot Box

By Robbie Gramer and Liam Scott

FP MARCH 22, 2023

Kosovo Has a Deal—if the West Can Save It

By Edward P. Joseph, a conflict management expert who teaches at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.

FP MARCH 23, 2023

Keep Talking to the Taliban

By Adam Weinstein, a research fellow at the Quincy Institute.

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 UK政治

The Guardian, Mon 20 Mar 2023

Of course Boris Johnson is guilty of misleading parliament – stand by for another Tory civil war

Simon Jenkins

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 変動レート50

PS Mar 20, 2023

Fifty Years of Floating Currencies

JEFFREY FRANKEL

FT March 23, 2023

Asia needs a more effective financial safety net

Rhee Chang-yong

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 緊縮財政

PS Mar 22, 2023

Who Gets Squeezed by Austerity?

CHRISTY BRAHAM

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 オランダ

FP MARCH 20, 2023

The Netherlands’ Eternal Prime Minister Survives Another Populist Wave

By Stan Veuger, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.

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 ドイツ

FT March 21, 2023

A reckoning on Germany’s Russia policy is long overdue

Constanze Stelzenmüller YESTERDAY

FP MARCH 22, 2023

Skilled Migrants Aren’t Interested in Germany

By Paul Hockenos, a Berlin-based journalist.

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 パレスチナ、イスラエル

PS Mar 21, 2023

Hell in the Holy Land

CARL BILDT

FP MARCH 23, 2023

Netanyahu’s Legal Crusade Is Sparking a Military Backlash in Israel

By Amos Harel, the defense analyst for the Israeli newspaper Haaretz.

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 ポーランド

FP MARCH 21, 2023

How Poland Distorts Its Holocaust History

By Daniel Schatz, a visiting scholar at Georgetown University and a writer on international affairs.

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 ケニア

FT March 22, 2023

In drought-stricken Kenya, dead livestock tell of livelihoods lost

David Pilling

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 産業政策

PS Mar 22, 2023

America’s Industrial Policy Is Counterproductive

ANNE O. KRUEGER

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 人形の家

NYT March 23, 2023

Women Are Still Stuck in ‘A Doll’s House’

By Pamela Paul

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The Economist March 11th 2023

How to avoid a third world war

Emmanuel Macron: Trouble on two fronts

Defending Taiwan: Storm warning

Democratic bench: Say it ain’t Joe

Argentina: How not to deal with China

Taiwan: Frontline Formosa

Macron and the world: Perpetual motion

China Inc in the West: Seizing the moment

(コメント) 覇権的な国際秩序の移行期に、通貨危機や世界不況、軍事衝突が頻発するという予想は以前から広く懸念されていたものです。米中の軍事関係者は、ますます残された時間がないことを意識し、準備に奔走している、と知りました。

マクロン大統領やバイデン大統領の姿勢が動揺すれば、それは国際秩序に速やかに危機を呼ぶことになります。国際政治における課題を解決する方策は容易に見つまりません。

台湾の半導体産業やハイテク産業、西側の豊かな消費者に浸透する新興の中国企業群が、米中衝突を時代遅れにするような政治的条件を、各国で競い合うと思います。

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IPEの想像力 3/27/2023

卒業式の日、就職戦線を終えて、若者たちは社会に役立つ意気込みにあふれていました。しかし、政府は防衛費倍増と基地建設を急いでおり、岸田首相はキーウ訪問をG7主宰の準備として実現しています。

「アメリカがアジアで軍備増強と同盟諸国の軍事力強化を求める中、2つの問題が現れる。台湾を防衛するために、核大国と直接に戦争するリスクを冒すのか? それはウクライナで避けてきたことだ。また、アジアで中国と軍備拡大競争をすることが、防ごうとしている米中戦争を、むしろ挑発することにならないか?」(The Economist March 11th 2023

すでに自衛隊に参加している若者たちは、台湾海峡有事の意味を、どのように学んでいるのだろうか、と私は思います。そのとき彼・彼女は、何のために命を懸けて戦うのか?

「中国は、威圧的ではあるが戦争行為ではない「グレーゾーン」戦術を使用して、自治の島を封鎖し、経済と士気を低下させるだろう。あるいは、グアムと日本の米軍基地にミサイル先制攻撃を仕掛け、水陸両用攻撃への道を切り開くこともできる。」

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拙著『ブレグジット×トランプの時代』では、The Economistの第2次朝鮮戦争や、E. Luceの台湾海峡危機(トランプと習近平の軍事衝突)に関する架空のプーチンによる仲裁を取り上げました。The Economistは米中衝突が迫る台湾の特集です。

要点1:多くの日本人が知らないまま、開戦の危機は急速に高まっている。しかも、中国と台湾の複雑な関係は、台湾の歴史から生じた。(大陸における国共内戦と、敗走した蒋介石による台湾支配。国民党による独裁体制。民主化と、独立を支持する民進党の総裁誕生。)

要点2:中国・人民解放軍の台湾侵攻に対する最も重要な防壁は台湾経済とその半導体産業である。米中ともに、超高度な半導体製造企業(TSMC)を求めて産業・貿易政策を進めている。

要点3:アメリカの戦術的な曖昧さと各大統領の姿勢は不安定要素である。他方、北京は、台湾住民のアイデンティティーに影響を及ぼす情報操作、フェイク、ネット上の攻撃を強めている。

要点4:時代錯誤の戦争計画ではなく、ウクライナの防衛戦争から学び、侵攻が中国共産党に耐えられないコストをもたらすと理解できる「ヤマアラシ」型要塞化を進めるべきだ。

要点5:リトアニアや、米欧日の民主的政府による台湾支持が欠かせない。2024年の台湾総統選挙は、新ビジョンと新世代の政治・社会運動を刺激する焦点となる。

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性格の異なる2つの帝国がぶつかり合う世界で、民主的な都市国家は、交易と思想の自由を掲げて連携します。世界の各地から、そして、米中の国内でも。

逆説のブレグジット(統合化プロジェクトからの離反と、再統合化への理想的モデルの模索)と呼べるでしょう。民主的な意思決定を重視する、という北京との新しい合意、アジア全域の貿易・投資協定と経済協力会議、地域安全保障、為替・通貨安定化基金、それらを前提に、台湾が中国のもっとも緊密な同胞である、と認め合う目標を政治が共有するとき、戦争の危機は去ります。

アジア諸国は北京の平和的な秩序構築を歓迎するでしょう。台湾はアジアの平和と繁栄を支える民主的なガバナンスのシンボルとなり、日本は率先して中台の友好関係を深めます。そのとき中国は、国民党との内戦だけでなく、アメリカとの冷戦にも平和的に勝利し、新秩序を宣言します。

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「台湾が単独で攻撃に抵抗できるのは数日または数週間だけであり、いかなる紛争もすぐに超大国の軍事衝突に発展する可能性がある。」

香港とウクライナを経験した世界が、中国の言説に厳しい評価をするのは当然です。それを克服する責任が、台湾ではなく、中国にとって非常に重要であると理解するときが来ます。北京が視点を変えることは大きなアピールになるからです。

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