IPEの果樹園2022

今週のReview

3/7-12

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プーチンのウクライナ戦争 ・・・プーチンへの称賛と憎悪 ・・・NATOと冷戦後の秩序 ・・・核兵器による脅迫 ・・・トランプと共和党のウクライナ戦争 ・・・中国とウクライナ戦争 ・・・対ロシア経済制裁 ・・・ウクライナ戦争と制裁の意味 ・・・バイデン一般教書演説 ・・・インフレーションと日本 ・・・ウクライナ戦争の終結

Review関連コラム集]

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主要な出典 FP: Foreign Policy, FT: Financial Times, Foreign Policy, The Guardian, NYT: New York Times, PS: Project Syndicate, SPIEGEL International, VOX: VoxEU.orgそして、The Economist (London)

[これは英文コラムの紹介です.私の関心に従って,いくつか要点を紹介しています.Google翻訳を基に、修正しています。関心を持たれた方は正しい内容を必ず自分で確かめてください.著者と掲載機関の著作権に従います.] 

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 ニクソン訪中後の半世紀

SPIEGEL International 22.02.2022

A Half Century after Nixon's Visit to China

"Xi Is, Along with Putin, the Most Dangerous Man in the World"

Interview Conducted by Bernhard Zand in New York

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 プーチンのウクライナ戦争

NYT Feb. 24, 2022

Mr. Putin Launches a Sequel to the Cold War

By The Editorial Board

The Guardian, Fri 25 Feb 2022

What’s going on inside Putin’s mind? His own words give us a disturbing clue

Michel Eltchaninoff

FT February 25, 2022

The politics of ‘iron and blood’ return to Europe

Richard Shirreff

PS Feb 25, 2022

What's on Putin's Mind?

NINA L. KHRUSHCHEVA

PS Feb 25, 2022

Putin's Imperial Delirium

CARL BILDT

NYT Feb. 25, 2022

Why Is Putin at War Again? Because He Keeps Winning.

By Chris Miller

FP FEBRUARY 25, 2022

Ro Khanna: Ukraine Will Be Russia’s Afghanistan

By Colm Quinn, the newsletter writer at Foreign Policy.

FT February 26, 2022

Vladimir Putin, Russia’s resentful leader, takes the world to war

Max Seddon

NYT Feb. 26, 2022

Vladimir Putin’s Clash of Civilizations

By Ross Douthat

NYT Feb. 26, 2022

Rash Putin Razes Ukraine

By Maureen Dowd

NYT Feb. 27, 2022

We Are All Living in Vladimir Putin’s World Now

By Ivan Krastev

FP JANUARY 27, 2022

3 Things the World Should Know About Putin

By Tatiana Stanovaya, a nonresident scholar at the Carnegie Moscow Center.

The Guardian, Mon 28 Feb 2022

Why Vladimir Putin has already lost this war

Yuval Noah Harari

FT February 28, 2022

Vladimir Putin’s grand plan is unravelling

Gideon Rachman

FT February 28, 2022

Putin underestimated Ukraine and the west

FT February 28, 2022

Putin’s use of military force is a crime of aggression

Philippe Sands

NYT March 1, 2022

I’m a Cold War Historian. We’re in a Frightening New Era.

By Mary Elise Sarotte

POLITICO Magazine 02/28/2022

Q&AYes, He Would’: Fiona Hill on Putin and Nukes

By MAURA REYNOLDS

The Guardian, Wed 2 Mar 2022

This is Russia’s way of war. Putin has no qualm about medieval levels of brutality

Keir Giles

PS Mar 2, 2022

Is There a Method to Putin's Madness?

XAVIER VIVES

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 プーチンへの称賛と憎悪

The Guardian, Fri 25 Feb 2022

We’re appalled by Putin now, but be clear: the west gave him the green light

Jonathan Freedland

The Guardian, Fri 25 Feb 2022

It’s Putin’s tale of two cities – London for his oligarchs, Kyiv for his bombs

Marina Hyde

The Guardian, Fri 25 Feb 2022

The west has a duty to help defend Ukraine – and to help Russia by ensuring its defeat

Keir Giles

The Guardian, Fri 25 Feb 2022

This is how we defeat Putin and other petrostate autocrats

Bill McKibben

NYT Feb. 25, 2022

We Have Never Been Here Before

By Thomas L. Friedman

The Guardian, Sat 26 Feb 2022

Timidity, greed and sloth: why the west always loses to Putin

Simon Tisdall

NYT Feb. 27, 2022

This War Is Not in My Name

By Irina Kuznetsova

NYT Feb. 28, 2022

Ukraine Presents a Moral Crisis, Not Just a Military One

By David Miliband

NYT Feb. 28, 2022

Russia Is a Potemkin Superpower

By Paul Krugman

FT March 1, 2022

How I got Russia wrong

Robert Armstrong and Ethan Wu

PS Mar 1, 2022

Who's the Nazi?

SŁAWOMIR SIERAKOWSKI

NYT March 2, 2022

In Russia, I Learned, Threats Were Always Real

By Megan K. Stack

FT March 3, 2022

Who are the Londoners enabling the Russian elite?

Simon Kuper

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 NATOと冷戦後の秩序

NYT Feb. 24, 2022

It’s Official: The Post-Cold War Era Is Over

By Emma Ashford

FT February 25, 2022

Russia, Ukraine and the 30-year quest for a post-Soviet order

Mary Elise Sarotte

PS Feb 25, 2022

Ukraine's Lessons for NATO's Eastern Flank

MACIEJ KISILOWSKI, ANNA WOJCIUK

FP FEBRUARY 25, 2022

Why the Last War May Have Triggered This One

By Michael Hirsh, a senior correspondent at Foreign Policy.

FP FEBRUARY 26, 2022

Germany to Arm Ukraine in Major Policy Reversal

By Jack Detsch, Foreign Policy’s Pentagon and national security reporter.

The Guardian, Sun 27 Feb 2022

It is a matter of life and death. So the EU will provide weapons for Ukraine’s armed forces

Josep Borrell

The Guardian, Sun 27 Feb 2022

Liberal democracies must defend their values and show Putin that the west isn’t weak

Andrew Rawnsley

FT February 27, 2022

Western allies must regain the initiative over Putin in the Black Sea

Ben Hodges

FP FEBRUARY 27, 2022

Putin Accidentally Started a Revolution in Germany

By Jeff Rathke, the president of the American Institute for Contemporary German Studies at Johns Hopkins University.

FP FEBRUARY 27, 2022

Former NATO Commander: ‘Is the West Going to Tolerate Russia Doing This to Ukraine?’

By Amy Mackinnon, a national security and intelligence reporter at Foreign Policy.

PS Feb 28, 2022

From Shock Therapy to Putin's War

KATHARINA PISTOR

FP FEBRUARY 28, 2022

Putin’s War Is Europe’s 9/11

By Caroline de Gruyter, a columnist at Foreign Policy and a Europe correspondent for the Dutch newspaper NRC Handelsblad.

The Guardian, Tue 1 Mar 2022

The Guardian view on Europe versus Putin: a strategic journey without maps

Editorial

PS Mar 1, 2022

From Munich to Moscow

PETER SINGER

NYT March 1, 2022

Biden Must Not Allow Ukraine to Fall

By Bret Stephens

SPIEGEL International 01.03.2022

European Commission Vice President Margrethe Vestager

"This Is a Cold War for the 21st Century"

Interview Conducted By Michael Sauga in Brussels

FT March 2, 2022

Putin has reignited the conflict between tyranny and liberal democracy

Martin Wolf

FT March 2, 2022

Germany’s foreign policy shift is about more than Ukraine

DANIELA SCHWARZERAdd to myFT

PS Mar 2, 2022

What Does Defending Europe Mean?

SLAVOJ ŽIŽEK

The Guardian, Thu 3 Mar 2022

Putin’s war is a watershed moment for the EU – the days of ‘never again’ are back

Caroline de Gruyter

FT March 3, 2022

Ukraine is winning the information war against Russia

John Thornhill

PS Mar 3, 2022

Putin's War Has Given Birth to Geopolitical Europe

JOSEP BORRELL

PS Mar 3, 2022

Will Ukraine's Tragedy Spur UN Security Council Reform?

KEMAL DERVIŞ, JOSÉ ANTONIO OCAMPO

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 核兵器による脅迫

PS Mar 1, 2022

Nuclear Deterrence After Ukraine

JOSEPH S. NYE, JR.

FP MARCH 1, 2022

Europeans Are Terrified of Putin’s Nuclear Button

By Anchal Vohra, a columnist for Foreign Policy and a freelance TV correspondent and commentator on the Middle East based in Beirut.

FP MARCH 1, 2022

Is Putin Resurrecting the Balance of Terror?

By Michael Hirsh, a senior correspondent at Foreign Policy.

The Guardian, Wed 2 Mar 2022

As Russia struggles in Ukraine, will Putin break the nuclear taboo?

Kristin Ven Bruusgaard

FT March 2, 2022

Western allies must respond to Putin without risking escalation

Samuel Charap

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 トランプと共和党のウクライナ戦争

NYT Feb. 24, 2022

Defeat Trump, Now More Than Ever

By David Brooks

FT February 26, 2022

What if Donald Trump were still president?

Henry Mance

FT February 27, 2022

Donald Trump’s accounts may hold him to account

NYT Feb. 27, 2022

How the American Right Stopped Worrying and Learned to Love Russia

By Emily Tamkin

The Guardian, Tue 1 Mar 2022

Putinism is breeding in the heart of the Republican party

Robert Reich

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 中国とウクライナ戦争

The Guardian, Fri 25 Feb 2022

War in Ukraine is a severe test of China’s new axis with Russia

Yu Jie

FP FEBRUARY 26, 2022

China and Russia’s Friendship in Ukraine Is Without Benefits

By Melinda Liu, Newsweek’s Beijing bureau chief.

PS Mar 1, 2022

Putin and Xi's Imperium of Grievance

ORVILLE SCHELL

PS Mar 1, 2022

Kevin Rudd

Says More…

FP MARCH 1, 2022

China’s Propaganda Over Ukraine Is Shifting and Uncertain

By Tracy Wen Liu, an author, reporter, and translator.

FT March 2, 2022

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine leaves China facing a difficult balancing act

James Kynge

FT March 3, 2022

China must press Russia over Ukraine ceasefire

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 アジアとウクライナ戦争

FP FEBRUARY 25, 2022

Biden Hasn’t Taken His Eyes off the Ball in Asia

By Sumit Ganguly, a columnist at Foreign Policy and a professor of political science at Indiana University, Bloomington.

FP MARCH 1, 2022

Putin’s War Has Killed China’s Eurasian Railway Dreams

By Andreea Brinza, the vice president of the Romanian Institute for the Study of the Asia-Pacific.

FP MARCH 2, 2022

Biden Now Needs a Plan to Deter China

By Husain Haqqani, the director for South and Central Asia at the Hudson Institute. He served as Pakistan’s ambassador to the United States from 2008 to 2011, and Aparna Pande, the director of the Hudson Institute’s Initiative on the Future of India and South Asia.

FP MARCH 2, 2022

Japan Steps Up on Ukraine

By James D.J. Brown, an associate professor of political science at Temple University in Japan, and William Sposato, a Tokyo-based journalist.

FP MARCH 3, 2022

India Must Take a Stand on Russia’s War in Ukraine

By Sumit Ganguly, a columnist at Foreign Policy and a professor of political science at Indiana University, Bloomington.

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 対ロシア制裁

FT February 25, 2022

Swift delay highlights divisions in US-led sanctions alliance against Russia

Jonathan Guthrie

FP FEBRUARY 25, 2022

The Loophole in Biden’s Sanctions That Allows Russia to Prosper

By Cameron Abadi, a deputy editor at Foreign Policy.

PS Feb 26, 2022

The Case for a Punitive Tax on Russian Oil

RICARDO HAUSMANN

FT February 27, 2022

The EU must deploy financial shock and awe against Putin’s aggression

Martin Sandbu

FT February 27, 2022

Sanctions: dithering EU willing to freeze Russian central bank — but not German homes

The Guardian, Mon 28 Feb 2022

Sanctions don’t work – serious diplomacy is the only way to stop Putin

Simon Jenkins

PS Feb 28, 2022

How Europe Can Sustain Russia Sanctions

ANA PALACIO, SILVIA MERLER, FRANCESCO NICOLI, SIMONE TAGLIAPIETRA

PS Feb 28, 2022

Stop Financing Putin's War

SIMON JOHNSON

FT March 1, 2022

Iran’s experience signals banning Swift will not work as expected

Guest writer

FT March 1, 2022

Rouble/interest rates: knock-on effects of sanctions will ripple beyond Russia

FT March 1, 2022

Londongrad will stand so long as enforcement stays weak

Cat Rutter Pooley

FP MARCH 1, 2022

America’s Sanctions on Russia Are Not a Slam Dunk

By Cameron Abadi, a deputy editor at Foreign Policy.

The Guardian, Thu 3 Mar 2022

History demands the west deploy every legal and financial weapon against Putin

Mikhail Khodorkovsky

FT March 3, 2022

Western brands flee Russia in unravelling of ‘capitalistic diplomacy’

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 ウクライナ戦争と制裁の意味

PS Feb 25, 2022

The Economic Consequences of the Ukraine War

JASON FURMAN

PS Feb 25, 2022

Russia's War and the Global Economy

NOURIEL ROUBINI

FT February 26, 2022

West prepares to play ‘long game’ on Russian sanctions

Chris Giles in London and Max Seddon in Moscow

FT February 26, 2022

The new energy shock: Putin, Ukraine and the global economy

Derek Brower in New York, Tom Wilson and Chris Giles in London

FT February 26, 2022

Ukraine conflict raises the possibility of stagflation

FT February 26, 2022

Ukraine war disrupts global market for grains

John Dizard

FT February 27, 2022

China, Russia and the race to a post-dollar world

Rana Foroohar

PS Feb 28, 2022

Protecting the Democratic Dividend

KAUSHIK BASU

FP FEBRUARY 28, 2022

Putin Just Pushed the World Into an Even Bigger Energy Crisis

By Brenda Shaffer, a faculty member at the U.S. Naval Postgraduate School.

PS Mar 1, 2022

Will Russia's War Spur Trade Diversification?

MICHAEL SPENCE

NYT March 1, 2022

What the War in Ukraine Means for the World’s Food Supply

By Michael J. Puma and Megan Konar

FT March 2, 2022

War in Ukraine: when political risks upturn commodity markets

Emiko Terazono and Neil Hume in London and Nic Fildes in Sydney

FT March 2, 2022

Conflict and capital: lessons from the first world war

Guest writer

FT March 2, 2022

The $300bn question facing central banks

Guest writer

PS Mar 2, 2022

Will Sanctioning Russia Upend the Monetary System?

JIM O'NEILL

PS Mar 2, 2022

Is the Peace Dividend Over?

KENNETH ROGOFF

FT March 4, 2022

War in Ukraine threatens the global financial system

Gillian Tett

FT March 4, 2022

The economic fallout of Russia’s war poses nasty dilemma for west

Chris Giles

FT March 4, 2022

Central bank sanctions strike at the foundations of Russia’s economy

Michael Bernstam

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 EU資本市場統合

FT February 25, 2022

Capital markets union is key to a sovereign EU

Theodor Weimer

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 バイデン一般教書演説

NYT Feb. 25, 2022

Democrats Used to Be Able to Get Things Done. What Happened?

By Michael Kazin

FT February 27, 2022

US midterm elections: As Texas goes, so goes the nation?

Lauren Fedor in San Antonio, Texas

PS Feb 28, 2022

Biden's Frozen Trade Policy

ANNE O. KRUEGER

NYT March 1, 2022

How the State of the Union Became One of the Weirdest Nights in American Politics

By Jacob Bacharach

FT March 2, 2022

Biden tries to renew an ailing presidency

PS Mar 2, 2022

The Old Man in the White House

IAN BURUMA

NYT March 2, 2022

Biden Has the Right Idea, but the Wrong Words

By Ezra Klein

FP MARCH 2, 2022

Biden’s State of the Union Was … Meh

By Michael Hirsh, a senior correspondent at Foreign Policy.

NYT March 3, 2022

Biden’s Biggest Nightmare Is One He Didn’t See Coming

By Frank Bruni

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 キエフの攻防

FT February 26, 2022

On the streets of Kyiv: a lone band of brothers or the first resistance cells?

Tim Judah

FP FEBRUARY 26, 2022

Russia Tries to Terrorize Ukraine With Images of Chechen Soldiers

By Justin Ling, a journalist based in Toronto.

FT February 27, 2022

Russian troops at Kyiv’s gates transform residents into fighters

John Reed in Kyiv

The Guardian, Tue 1 Mar 2022

Let the horror in Ukraine open our eyes to the suffering of war around the world

Nesrine Malik

NYT Feb. 28, 2022

Why Ukrainians Believe They Can Win

By Michelle Goldberg

FP MARCH 1, 2022

Putin Reaches for the Syria Playbook as Ukraine Invasion Stalls

By Jack Losh, a journalist, photographer, and filmmaker whose focus spans conflict, conservation, humanitarian issues, and traditional cultures.

NYT March 2, 2022

The Ukraine of My Childhood Is Being Erased

By Lev Golinkin

The Guardian, Thu 3 Mar 2022

The Guardian view on Putin’s siege tactics in Ukraine: a war crime by another name

Editorial

PS Mar 3, 2022

What Ukraine Needs

IVANNA KLYMPUSH-TSINTSADZE

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 資本市場とウクライナ戦争

FT February 26, 2022

Six factors to guide investors during Ukraine turmoil

Mohamed El-Erian

FT February 28, 2022

The best bet for the 2020s is short tech, long commodities

Ruchir Sharma

FT February 28, 2022

Emerging markets recoil from Ukraine war shock

Jonathan Wheatley

FT February 28, 2022

Sanctions and markets

Robert Armstrong

FT February 28, 2022

Russia’s FX reserves slip from its grasp

Claire Jones and Joseph Cotterill

FT March 2, 2022

Investors can no longer afford to ignore geopolitical risk

Helen Thomas

FT March 2, 2022

Why the war on Ukraine is a turning point for markets too

Robin Brooks

FT March 2, 2022

Investing in a time of war

Simon Edelsten

FP MARCH 2, 2022

Forget Oil. Putin’s War Is Wrecking the Wheat Market.

By Christina Lu, Robbie Gramer, and Anisa Pezeshki

FT March 3, 2022

Valuations offer support to European equities amid Ukraine uncertainty

Peter Oppenheimer

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 黒人を殺すアメリカの原罪

NYT Feb. 26, 2022

Trayvon Martin Is Still Making

America Confront Its Original Sin

By Charles M. Blow

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 コロナウイルス

PS Feb 27, 2022

Could the COVID-19 Virus Evade the Vaccines?

WILLIAM A. HASELTINE

VOX 28 February 2022

Prospects of the global economy after Covid-19

Daron Acemoğlu, Thorsten Beck, Maurice Obstfeld, Yung Chul Park

PS Mar 3, 2022

The Lasting Harm of COVID School Closures

SUSAN DYNARSKI, RACHEL GLENNERSTER

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 インフレーション対策

PS Feb 28, 2022

The Fed's Historic Error

MOHAMED A. EL-ERIAN

NYT Feb. 28, 2022

Larry Summers Shares the Blame for Inflation

By David Dayen

FT March 1, 2022

Labour shortages and inflation: why UK labour relations are hotting up

Bethan Staton, Delphine Strauss and Josephine Cumbo

PS Mar 3, 2022

Why Is Japan So Cheap?

TAKATOSHI ITO

PS Mar 3, 2022

Time for Supply

JOHN H. COCHRANE, JON HARTLEY

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 イエメン戦争

FP FEBRUARY 28, 2022

Ukraine Crisis Spills Into Yemen Diplomacy

By Colum Lynch, a senior staff writer at Foreign Policy.

FP MARCH 1, 2022

Ending War in Yemen Requires Talk, Not Labels

By Peter Salisbury, the senior analyst for Yemen at the International Crisis Group, and Michael Wahid Hanna, the U.S. program director at the International Crisis Group.

FT March 2, 2022

Middle Eastern powers must review their allegiances in light of Ukraine conflict

David Gardner

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 ウクライナ戦争の終結

The Guardian, Tue 1 Mar 2022

The solace for young Russians like me is that Putin is also digging his own grave in Ukraine

Sergey Faldin

NYT March 1, 2022

I See Three Scenarios for How This War Ends

By Thomas L. Friedman

NYT March 2, 2022

Looking for an Endgame in Ukraine

By Ross Douthat

NYT March 3, 2022

Russia Has Suffered a Crushing Moral Defeat. And Russians Know It.

By Alexey Kovalev

FP MARCH 3, 2022

What Putin’s Past Says About Ukraine’s Future

By Mary Yang, an intern at Foreign Policy.

FP MARCH 3, 2022

Why Putin Keeps Talking About Kosovo

By Jade McGlynn, an academic at the Monterey Initiative in Russian Studies.

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 気候変動対策

PS Mar 1, 2022

Will the Climate Agenda Unravel?

JEAN PISANI-FERRY

PS Mar 2, 2022

Governing an Ocean of Plastics

RAIMUND BLEISCHWITZ

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 ブレグジットとウクライナ戦争

FT March 2, 2022

Ukraine marks an end to Brexit illusions

Robert Shrimsley

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 ゼレンスキー

NYT March 2, 2022

As I Write, President Zelensky Is Beside Me. Please, Help Us Show Putin the Mistake He Has Made.

By Andriy Yermak

FT March 3, 2022

What I learnt from dinner with Volodymyr Zelensky

Gillian Tett

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 韓国大統領選挙

FT March 3, 2022

South Korea’s raucous politics: presidential election defined by mudslinging and scandal

Christian Davies in Seoul

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The Economist February 12th 2022

When the ride ends

The Ukraine crisis: Minsky moment

Democracy in India: Festive but fraying

Uttar Pradesh: The other midterms

Banyan: Of the ages

Germany: Olaf Scholz wakes up

Bosnia: Shaky state

Geopolitics: How Russia revived NATO

Industrial technology: Automation Inc

Financial markets: What goes up

Free exchange: The curtain falls

(コメント) テクノロジーとQE+低金利の強気相場が終わります。誰がパンツをはいていないのか? 世界金融危機後の金融市場の変化と、取引仲介、銀行、個人投資家の貯蓄・投資パターンが、衝撃に耐えられるか、初めての試験を受けます。

212日のThe Economistでも、世界の焦点はウクライナ危機でした。プーチンの異常な精神状態、ドイツのショルツ新首相とフランスのマクロン大統領が示した行動・思考様式、NATOEUに傾いたウクライナの姿勢を断固として拒んだプーチンの姿勢は、このとき、すでに明確です。ミンスク合意の意味、戦争を回避し、交渉による合意を得る道筋が、説得的に検討されています。

インドの民主主義が示す病的兆候も、日本の岸田首相が示す空疎な資本主義論も、ウクライナ危機に並んで、目を引きました。

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IPEの想像力 3/7/29

戦争を止める手段として、経済制裁は有効か?

戦わずして勝つ。その原理は、古代や中世にもあった首都の包囲戦でしょう。水や食糧の供給を断って、兵士たちが疲弊し、降伏するか、餓死を強いる。

また、貿易取引や輸送路を遮断することで、兵器や必要な物資、戦争のための財源 “war chest” を与えない。金融市場から締め出し、資金調達を阻む。銀行取引や外国為替取引に介入し、通貨価値の暴落、銀行の取り付け、政府債務の発行を禁じ、財政破綻を促す。

私が学んだ1980年代の国際政策協調論は、変動する為替レート(そして金利、インフレ、債務)の不安定さと間違った水準に応じた国内経済運営の制約を、主要国が単独にではなく、協力して新しい政策余地を創る思想でした。中央銀行による制裁の国際協調論は、まさに逆の姿で、それを示しています。

本当に、効果はあるのでしょうか? ルーブルの為替レートが急速に減価し、ロシア中央銀行の金利引き上げ、貿易や金融取引の縮小、そして不況は、短期的、中期的に起きるでしょう。しかし、イランや北朝鮮に対する制裁が、特に効果的であったとは思えません。

ロシア経済は世界市場に対して相互依存が限定的であったかもしれません。資源の輸出が重要な外貨獲得源である点で、それは維持できるでしょう。制裁逃れと第3国への2次的制裁がどこまで有効か、国際通貨・貿易システムや金融市場の在り方が問われます。

制裁の国際協調が他分野におよぶ新しい時代を、中国は注視しているでしょう。また、逆に、アメリカやUKに対する同様の制裁が起きる可能性については、どこまで真剣に考えているのでしょうか?

ロシアと比べてUSの場合、経済の多様性は制裁に対する強靭さを示す条件ですが、巨額の財政赤字、経常収支の赤字があります。中国が巨大なドル建債券を保有していることを、金融市場は恐れるでしょう。他方で、US金融資産は外国に多くの債権者がいるため、USへの制裁(またUSによる金融市場閉鎖)に反対するでしょう。

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プーチンの戦争を止めるために、ロシア国民の資産や経済を破壊してよいのか? 制裁で損害を受ける民間企業や関係諸国への補償は行われるのか? ロシアは国際経済から切り離されるのか? 中央銀行が経済・金融危機を推進するのは正しいか?

ロシアに対する制裁は、第3国や世界経済に波及します。この制裁が短期間で終わるか、長期化するか、大きな違いがあるでしょう。金融市場や国際商品市場を介して世界経済や主要諸国がどのように反応するか、まだわかりません。しかし、明らかに、ロシアの生産性が低下し、成長率も低下する、と専門家たちは考えます。ブレグジット後のUKのように。

なぜウクライナに対する侵攻には制裁の国際協調が発動できたのか? 世界中に戦争は起きています。しかし、他の侵略や戦争には、これほどの国際的な制裁は実施されません。EUNATOから、地域安全保障、地域経済・通貨統合の意味が変わるでしょう。国連の諸機関や難民支援、食料援助、国際司法裁判所、平和維持軍など、見直しの機会が現れます。

ロシアの侵攻で始まったウクライナ戦争は、今後の国際秩序をどのように変えるべきか、考えるように求めています。もし、侵略戦争に対するマイナスの国際政策協調も失敗するなら、大国による世界分割が加速します。

制裁発動と解除のルールをどう定めるか?  強力な制裁とその短期化には、交渉と仲裁のメカニズムが必要です。

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侵略戦争と経済制裁の国際システムは、これから議論を深めるべきことです。

20213月、中国の楊潔篪共産党政治局員とアメリカのブリンケン国務長官は、会談で激しくぶつかりました。ウクライナ戦争についても、米中の主張は戦後の国際システムを方向付け、米中協力の機会もあるはずです。

もしかしたら、これはプーチンのアフガニスタン、あるいは、天安門事件なのでしょうか?

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