IPEの果樹園2022
今週のReview
3/7-12
*****************************
プーチンのウクライナ戦争 ・・・プーチンへの称賛と憎悪 ・・・NATOと冷戦後の秩序 ・・・核兵器による脅迫 ・・・トランプと共和党のウクライナ戦争 ・・・中国とウクライナ戦争 ・・・対ロシア経済制裁 ・・・ウクライナ戦争と制裁の意味 ・・・バイデン一般教書演説 ・・・インフレーションと日本 ・・・ウクライナ戦争の終結
［Review関連コラム集］
******************************
主要な出典 FP: Foreign Policy, FT: Financial Times, Foreign Policy, The Guardian, NYT: New York Times, PS: Project Syndicate, SPIEGEL International, VOX: VoxEU.orgそして、The Economist (London)
［これは英文コラムの紹介です．私の関心に従って，いくつか要点を紹介しています．Google翻訳を基に、修正しています。関心を持たれた方は正しい内容を必ず自分で確かめてください．著者と掲載機関の著作権に従います．］
―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――
● ニクソン訪中後の半世紀
SPIEGEL International 22.02.2022
A Half Century after Nixon's Visit to China
"Xi Is, Along with Putin, the Most Dangerous Man in the World"
Interview Conducted by Bernhard Zand in New York
―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――
● プーチンのウクライナ戦争
NYT Feb. 24, 2022
Mr. Putin Launches a Sequel to the Cold War
By The Editorial Board
The Guardian, Fri 25 Feb 2022
What’s going on inside Putin’s mind? His own words give us a disturbing clue
Michel Eltchaninoff
FT February 25, 2022
The politics of ‘iron and blood’ return to Europe
Richard Shirreff
PS Feb 25, 2022
What's on Putin's Mind?
NINA L. KHRUSHCHEVA
PS Feb 25, 2022
Putin's Imperial Delirium
CARL BILDT
NYT Feb. 25, 2022
Why Is Putin at War Again? Because He Keeps Winning.
By Chris Miller
FP FEBRUARY 25, 2022
Ro Khanna: Ukraine Will Be Russia’s Afghanistan
By Colm Quinn, the newsletter writer at Foreign Policy.
FT February 26, 2022
Vladimir Putin, Russia’s resentful leader, takes the world to war
Max Seddon
NYT Feb. 26, 2022
Vladimir Putin’s Clash of Civilizations
By Ross Douthat
NYT Feb. 26, 2022
Rash Putin Razes Ukraine
By Maureen Dowd
NYT Feb. 27, 2022
We Are All Living in Vladimir Putin’s World Now
By Ivan Krastev
FP JANUARY 27, 2022
3 Things the World Should Know About Putin
By Tatiana Stanovaya, a nonresident scholar at the Carnegie Moscow Center.
The Guardian, Mon 28 Feb 2022
Why Vladimir Putin has already lost this war
Yuval Noah Harari
FT February 28, 2022
Vladimir Putin’s grand plan is unravelling
Gideon Rachman
FT February 28, 2022
Putin underestimated Ukraine and the west
FT February 28, 2022
Putin’s use of military force is a crime of aggression
Philippe Sands
NYT March 1, 2022
I’m a Cold War Historian. We’re in a Frightening New Era.
By Mary Elise Sarotte
POLITICO Magazine 02/28/2022
Q&A‘Yes, He Would’: Fiona Hill on Putin and Nukes
By MAURA REYNOLDS
The Guardian, Wed 2 Mar 2022
This is Russia’s way of war. Putin has no qualm about medieval levels of brutality
Keir Giles
PS Mar 2, 2022
Is There a Method to Putin's Madness?
XAVIER VIVES
―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――
● プーチンへの称賛と憎悪
The Guardian, Fri 25 Feb 2022
We’re appalled by Putin now, but be clear: the west gave him the green light
Jonathan Freedland
The Guardian, Fri 25 Feb 2022
It’s Putin’s tale of two cities – London for his oligarchs, Kyiv for his bombs
Marina Hyde
The Guardian, Fri 25 Feb 2022
The west has a duty to help defend Ukraine – and to help Russia by ensuring its defeat
Keir Giles
The Guardian, Fri 25 Feb 2022
This is how we defeat Putin and other petrostate autocrats
Bill McKibben
NYT Feb. 25, 2022
We Have Never Been Here Before
By Thomas L. Friedman
The Guardian, Sat 26 Feb 2022
Timidity, greed and sloth: why the west always loses to Putin
Simon Tisdall
NYT Feb. 27, 2022
This War Is Not in My Name
By Irina Kuznetsova
NYT Feb. 28, 2022
Ukraine Presents a Moral Crisis, Not Just a Military One
By David Miliband
NYT Feb. 28, 2022
Russia Is a Potemkin Superpower
By Paul Krugman
FT March 1, 2022
How I got Russia wrong
Robert Armstrong and Ethan Wu
PS Mar 1, 2022
Who's the Nazi?
SŁAWOMIR SIERAKOWSKI
NYT March 2, 2022
In Russia, I Learned, Threats Were Always Real
By Megan K. Stack
FT March 3, 2022
Who are the Londoners enabling the Russian elite?
Simon Kuper
―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――
● NATOと冷戦後の秩序
NYT Feb. 24, 2022
It’s Official: The Post-Cold War Era Is Over
By Emma Ashford
FT February 25, 2022
Russia, Ukraine and the 30-year quest for a post-Soviet order
Mary Elise Sarotte
PS Feb 25, 2022
Ukraine's Lessons for NATO's Eastern Flank
MACIEJ KISILOWSKI, ANNA WOJCIUK
FP FEBRUARY 25, 2022
Why the Last War May Have Triggered This One
By Michael Hirsh, a senior correspondent at Foreign Policy.
FP FEBRUARY 26, 2022
Germany to Arm Ukraine in Major Policy Reversal
By Jack Detsch, Foreign Policy’s Pentagon and national security reporter.
The Guardian, Sun 27 Feb 2022
It is a matter of life and death. So the EU will provide weapons for Ukraine’s armed forces
Josep Borrell
The Guardian, Sun 27 Feb 2022
Liberal democracies must defend their values and show Putin that the west isn’t weak
Andrew Rawnsley
FT February 27, 2022
Western allies must regain the initiative over Putin in the Black Sea
Ben Hodges
FP FEBRUARY 27, 2022
Putin Accidentally Started a Revolution in Germany
By Jeff Rathke, the president of the American Institute for Contemporary German Studies at Johns Hopkins University.
FP FEBRUARY 27, 2022
Former NATO Commander: ‘Is the West Going to Tolerate Russia Doing This to Ukraine?’
By Amy Mackinnon, a national security and intelligence reporter at Foreign Policy.
PS Feb 28, 2022
From Shock Therapy to Putin's War
KATHARINA PISTOR
FP FEBRUARY 28, 2022
Putin’s War Is Europe’s 9/11
By Caroline de Gruyter, a columnist at Foreign Policy and a Europe correspondent for the Dutch newspaper NRC Handelsblad.
The Guardian, Tue 1 Mar 2022
The Guardian view on Europe versus Putin: a strategic journey without maps
Editorial
PS Mar 1, 2022
From Munich to Moscow
PETER SINGER
NYT March 1, 2022
Biden Must Not Allow Ukraine to Fall
By Bret Stephens
SPIEGEL International 01.03.2022
European Commission Vice President Margrethe Vestager
"This Is a Cold War for the 21st Century"
Interview Conducted By Michael Sauga in Brussels
FT March 2, 2022
Putin has reignited the conflict between tyranny and liberal democracy
Martin Wolf
FT March 2, 2022
Germany’s foreign policy shift is about more than Ukraine
DANIELA SCHWARZERAdd to myFT
PS Mar 2, 2022
What Does Defending Europe Mean?
SLAVOJ ŽIŽEK
The Guardian, Thu 3 Mar 2022
Putin’s war is a watershed moment for the EU – the days of ‘never again’ are back
Caroline de Gruyter
FT March 3, 2022
Ukraine is winning the information war against Russia
John Thornhill
PS Mar 3, 2022
Putin's War Has Given Birth to Geopolitical Europe
JOSEP BORRELL
PS Mar 3, 2022
Will Ukraine's Tragedy Spur UN Security Council Reform?
KEMAL DERVIŞ, JOSÉ ANTONIO OCAMPO
―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――
● 核兵器による脅迫
PS Mar 1, 2022
Nuclear Deterrence After Ukraine
JOSEPH S. NYE, JR.
FP MARCH 1, 2022
Europeans Are Terrified of Putin’s Nuclear Button
By Anchal Vohra, a columnist for Foreign Policy and a freelance TV correspondent and commentator on the Middle East based in Beirut.
FP MARCH 1, 2022
Is Putin Resurrecting the Balance of Terror?
By Michael Hirsh, a senior correspondent at Foreign Policy.
The Guardian, Wed 2 Mar 2022
As Russia struggles in Ukraine, will Putin break the nuclear taboo?
Kristin Ven Bruusgaard
FT March 2, 2022
Western allies must respond to Putin without risking escalation
Samuel Charap
―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――
● トランプと共和党のウクライナ戦争
NYT Feb. 24, 2022
Defeat Trump, Now More Than Ever
By David Brooks
FT February 26, 2022
What if Donald Trump were still president?
Henry Mance
FT February 27, 2022
Donald Trump’s accounts may hold him to account
NYT Feb. 27, 2022
How the American Right Stopped Worrying and Learned to Love Russia
By Emily Tamkin
The Guardian, Tue 1 Mar 2022
Putinism is breeding in the heart of the Republican party
Robert Reich
―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――
● 中国とウクライナ戦争
The Guardian, Fri 25 Feb 2022
War in Ukraine is a severe test of China’s new axis with Russia
Yu Jie
FP FEBRUARY 26, 2022
China and Russia’s Friendship in Ukraine Is Without Benefits
By Melinda Liu, Newsweek’s Beijing bureau chief.
PS Mar 1, 2022
Putin and Xi's Imperium of Grievance
ORVILLE SCHELL
PS Mar 1, 2022
Kevin Rudd
Says More…
FP MARCH 1, 2022
China’s Propaganda Over Ukraine Is Shifting and Uncertain
By Tracy Wen Liu, an author, reporter, and translator.
FT March 2, 2022
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine leaves China facing a difficult balancing act
James Kynge
FT March 3, 2022
China must press Russia over Ukraine ceasefire
―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――
● アジアとウクライナ戦争
FP FEBRUARY 25, 2022
Biden Hasn’t Taken His Eyes off the Ball in Asia
By Sumit Ganguly, a columnist at Foreign Policy and a professor of political science at Indiana University, Bloomington.
FP MARCH 1, 2022
Putin’s War Has Killed China’s Eurasian Railway Dreams
By Andreea Brinza, the vice president of the Romanian Institute for the Study of the Asia-Pacific.
FP MARCH 2, 2022
Biden Now Needs a Plan to Deter China
By Husain Haqqani, the director for South and Central Asia at the Hudson Institute. He served as Pakistan’s ambassador to the United States from 2008 to 2011, and Aparna Pande, the director of the Hudson Institute’s Initiative on the Future of India and South Asia.
FP MARCH 2, 2022
Japan Steps Up on Ukraine
By James D.J. Brown, an associate professor of political science at Temple University in Japan, and William Sposato, a Tokyo-based journalist.
FP MARCH 3, 2022
India Must Take a Stand on Russia’s War in Ukraine
By Sumit Ganguly, a columnist at Foreign Policy and a professor of political science at Indiana University, Bloomington.
―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――
● 対ロシア制裁
FT February 25, 2022
Swift delay highlights divisions in US-led sanctions alliance against Russia
Jonathan Guthrie
FP FEBRUARY 25, 2022
The Loophole in Biden’s Sanctions That Allows Russia to Prosper
By Cameron Abadi, a deputy editor at Foreign Policy.
PS Feb 26, 2022
The Case for a Punitive Tax on Russian Oil
RICARDO HAUSMANN
FT February 27, 2022
The EU must deploy financial shock and awe against Putin’s aggression
Martin Sandbu
FT February 27, 2022
Sanctions: dithering EU willing to freeze Russian central bank — but not German homes
The Guardian, Mon 28 Feb 2022
Sanctions don’t work – serious diplomacy is the only way to stop Putin
Simon Jenkins
PS Feb 28, 2022
How Europe Can Sustain Russia Sanctions
ANA PALACIO, SILVIA MERLER, FRANCESCO NICOLI, SIMONE TAGLIAPIETRA
PS Feb 28, 2022
Stop Financing Putin's War
SIMON JOHNSON
FT March 1, 2022
Iran’s experience signals banning Swift will not work as expected
Guest writer
FT March 1, 2022
Rouble/interest rates: knock-on effects of sanctions will ripple beyond Russia
FT March 1, 2022
Londongrad will stand so long as enforcement stays weak
Cat Rutter Pooley
FP MARCH 1, 2022
America’s Sanctions on Russia Are Not a Slam Dunk
By Cameron Abadi, a deputy editor at Foreign Policy.
The Guardian, Thu 3 Mar 2022
History demands the west deploy every legal and financial weapon against Putin
Mikhail Khodorkovsky
FT March 3, 2022
Western brands flee Russia in unravelling of ‘capitalistic diplomacy’
―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――
● ウクライナ戦争と制裁の意味
PS Feb 25, 2022
The Economic Consequences of the Ukraine War
JASON FURMAN
PS Feb 25, 2022
Russia's War and the Global Economy
NOURIEL ROUBINI
FT February 26, 2022
West prepares to play ‘long game’ on Russian sanctions
Chris Giles in London and Max Seddon in Moscow
FT February 26, 2022
The new energy shock: Putin, Ukraine and the global economy
Derek Brower in New York, Tom Wilson and Chris Giles in London
FT February 26, 2022
Ukraine conflict raises the possibility of stagflation
FT February 26, 2022
Ukraine war disrupts global market for grains
John Dizard
FT February 27, 2022
China, Russia and the race to a post-dollar world
Rana Foroohar
PS Feb 28, 2022
Protecting the Democratic Dividend
KAUSHIK BASU
FP FEBRUARY 28, 2022
Putin Just Pushed the World Into an Even Bigger Energy Crisis
By Brenda Shaffer, a faculty member at the U.S. Naval Postgraduate School.
PS Mar 1, 2022
Will Russia's War Spur Trade Diversification?
MICHAEL SPENCE
NYT March 1, 2022
What the War in Ukraine Means for the World’s Food Supply
By Michael J. Puma and Megan Konar
FT March 2, 2022
War in Ukraine: when political risks upturn commodity markets
Emiko Terazono and Neil Hume in London and Nic Fildes in Sydney
FT March 2, 2022
Conflict and capital: lessons from the first world war
Guest writer
FT March 2, 2022
The $300bn question facing central banks
Guest writer
PS Mar 2, 2022
Will Sanctioning Russia Upend the Monetary System?
JIM O'NEILL
PS Mar 2, 2022
Is the Peace Dividend Over?
KENNETH ROGOFF
FT March 4, 2022
War in Ukraine threatens the global financial system
Gillian Tett
FT March 4, 2022
The economic fallout of Russia’s war poses nasty dilemma for west
Chris Giles
FT March 4, 2022
Central bank sanctions strike at the foundations of Russia’s economy
Michael Bernstam
―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――
● EU資本市場統合
FT February 25, 2022
Capital markets union is key to a sovereign EU
Theodor Weimer
―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――
● バイデン一般教書演説
NYT Feb. 25, 2022
Democrats Used to Be Able to Get Things Done. What Happened?
By Michael Kazin
FT February 27, 2022
US midterm elections: As Texas goes, so goes the nation?
Lauren Fedor in San Antonio, Texas
PS Feb 28, 2022
Biden's Frozen Trade Policy
ANNE O. KRUEGER
NYT March 1, 2022
How the State of the Union Became One of the Weirdest Nights in American Politics
By Jacob Bacharach
FT March 2, 2022
Biden tries to renew an ailing presidency
PS Mar 2, 2022
The Old Man in the White House
IAN BURUMA
NYT March 2, 2022
Biden Has the Right Idea, but the Wrong Words
By Ezra Klein
FP MARCH 2, 2022
Biden’s State of the Union Was … Meh
By Michael Hirsh, a senior correspondent at Foreign Policy.
NYT March 3, 2022
Biden’s Biggest Nightmare Is One He Didn’t See Coming
By Frank Bruni
―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――
● キエフの攻防
FT February 26, 2022
On the streets of Kyiv: a lone band of brothers or the first resistance cells?
Tim Judah
FP FEBRUARY 26, 2022
Russia Tries to Terrorize Ukraine With Images of Chechen Soldiers
By Justin Ling, a journalist based in Toronto.
FT February 27, 2022
Russian troops at Kyiv’s gates transform residents into fighters
John Reed in Kyiv
The Guardian, Tue 1 Mar 2022
Let the horror in Ukraine open our eyes to the suffering of war around the world
Nesrine Malik
NYT Feb. 28, 2022
Why Ukrainians Believe They Can Win
By Michelle Goldberg
FP MARCH 1, 2022
Putin Reaches for the Syria Playbook as Ukraine Invasion Stalls
By Jack Losh, a journalist, photographer, and filmmaker whose focus spans conflict, conservation, humanitarian issues, and traditional cultures.
NYT March 2, 2022
The Ukraine of My Childhood Is Being Erased
By Lev Golinkin
The Guardian, Thu 3 Mar 2022
The Guardian view on Putin’s siege tactics in Ukraine: a war crime by another name
Editorial
PS Mar 3, 2022
What Ukraine Needs
IVANNA KLYMPUSH-TSINTSADZE
―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――
● 資本市場とウクライナ戦争
FT February 26, 2022
Six factors to guide investors during Ukraine turmoil
Mohamed El-Erian
FT February 28, 2022
The best bet for the 2020s is short tech, long commodities
Ruchir Sharma
FT February 28, 2022
Emerging markets recoil from Ukraine war shock
Jonathan Wheatley
FT February 28, 2022
Sanctions and markets
Robert Armstrong
FT February 28, 2022
Russia’s FX reserves slip from its grasp
Claire Jones and Joseph Cotterill
FT March 2, 2022
Investors can no longer afford to ignore geopolitical risk
Helen Thomas
FT March 2, 2022
Why the war on Ukraine is a turning point for markets too
Robin Brooks
FT March 2, 2022
Investing in a time of war
Simon Edelsten
FP MARCH 2, 2022
Forget Oil. Putin’s War Is Wrecking the Wheat Market.
By Christina Lu, Robbie Gramer, and Anisa Pezeshki
FT March 3, 2022
Valuations offer support to European equities amid Ukraine uncertainty
Peter Oppenheimer
―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――
● 黒人を殺すアメリカの原罪
NYT Feb. 26, 2022
Trayvon Martin Is Still Making
America Confront Its Original Sin
By Charles M. Blow
―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――
● コロナウイルス
PS Feb 27, 2022
Could the COVID-19 Virus Evade the Vaccines?
WILLIAM A. HASELTINE
VOX 28 February 2022
Prospects of the global economy after Covid-19
Daron Acemoğlu, Thorsten Beck, Maurice Obstfeld, Yung Chul Park
PS Mar 3, 2022
The Lasting Harm of COVID School Closures
SUSAN DYNARSKI, RACHEL GLENNERSTER
―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――
● インフレーション対策
PS Feb 28, 2022
The Fed's Historic Error
MOHAMED A. EL-ERIAN
NYT Feb. 28, 2022
Larry Summers Shares the Blame for Inflation
By David Dayen
FT March 1, 2022
Labour shortages and inflation: why UK labour relations are hotting up
Bethan Staton, Delphine Strauss and Josephine Cumbo
PS Mar 3, 2022
Why Is Japan So Cheap?
TAKATOSHI ITO
PS Mar 3, 2022
Time for Supply
JOHN H. COCHRANE, JON HARTLEY
―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――
● イエメン戦争
FP FEBRUARY 28, 2022
Ukraine Crisis Spills Into Yemen Diplomacy
By Colum Lynch, a senior staff writer at Foreign Policy.
FP MARCH 1, 2022
Ending War in Yemen Requires Talk, Not Labels
By Peter Salisbury, the senior analyst for Yemen at the International Crisis Group, and Michael Wahid Hanna, the U.S. program director at the International Crisis Group.
FT March 2, 2022
Middle Eastern powers must review their allegiances in light of Ukraine conflict
David Gardner
―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――
● ウクライナ戦争の終結
The Guardian, Tue 1 Mar 2022
The solace for young Russians like me is that Putin is also digging his own grave in Ukraine
Sergey Faldin
NYT March 1, 2022
I See Three Scenarios for How This War Ends
By Thomas L. Friedman
NYT March 2, 2022
Looking for an Endgame in Ukraine
By Ross Douthat
NYT March 3, 2022
Russia Has Suffered a Crushing Moral Defeat. And Russians Know It.
By Alexey Kovalev
FP MARCH 3, 2022
What Putin’s Past Says About Ukraine’s Future
By Mary Yang, an intern at Foreign Policy.
FP MARCH 3, 2022
Why Putin Keeps Talking About Kosovo
By Jade McGlynn, an academic at the Monterey Initiative in Russian Studies.
―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――
● 気候変動対策
PS Mar 1, 2022
Will the Climate Agenda Unravel?
JEAN PISANI-FERRY
PS Mar 2, 2022
Governing an Ocean of Plastics
RAIMUND BLEISCHWITZ
―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――
● ブレグジットとウクライナ戦争
FT March 2, 2022
Ukraine marks an end to Brexit illusions
Robert Shrimsley
―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――
● ゼレンスキー
NYT March 2, 2022
As I Write, President Zelensky Is Beside Me. Please, Help Us Show Putin the Mistake He Has Made.
By Andriy Yermak
FT March 3, 2022
What I learnt from dinner with Volodymyr Zelensky
Gillian Tett
―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――
● 韓国大統領選挙
FT March 3, 2022
South Korea’s raucous politics: presidential election defined by mudslinging and scandal
Christian Davies in Seoul
********************************
The Economist February 12th 2022
The Ukraine crisis: Minsky moment
Democracy in India: Festive but fraying
Uttar Pradesh: The other midterms
Banyan: Of the ages
Germany: Olaf Scholz wakes up
Bosnia: Shaky state
Geopolitics: How Russia revived NATO
Industrial technology: Automation Inc
Financial markets: What goes up
Free exchange: The curtain falls
（コメント） テクノロジーとQE＋低金利の強気相場が終わります。誰がパンツをはいていないのか? 世界金融危機後の金融市場の変化と、取引仲介、銀行、個人投資家の貯蓄・投資パターンが、衝撃に耐えられるか、初めての試験を受けます。
2月12日のThe Economistでも、世界の焦点はウクライナ危機でした。プーチンの異常な精神状態、ドイツのショルツ新首相とフランスのマクロン大統領が示した行動・思考様式、NATOとEUに傾いたウクライナの姿勢を断固として拒んだプーチンの姿勢は、このとき、すでに明確です。ミンスク合意の意味、戦争を回避し、交渉による合意を得る道筋が、説得的に検討されています。
インドの民主主義が示す病的兆候も、日本の岸田首相が示す空疎な資本主義論も、ウクライナ危機に並んで、目を引きました。
******************************
IPEの想像力 3/7/29
戦わずして勝つ。その原理は、古代や中世にもあった首都の包囲戦でしょう。水や食糧の供給を断って、兵士たちが疲弊し、降伏するか、餓死を強いる。
また、貿易取引や輸送路を遮断することで、兵器や必要な物資、戦争のための財源 “war chest” を与えない。金融市場から締め出し、資金調達を阻む。銀行取引や外国為替取引に介入し、通貨価値の暴落、銀行の取り付け、政府債務の発行を禁じ、財政破綻を促す。
私が学んだ1980年代の国際政策協調論は、変動する為替レート（そして金利、インフレ、債務）の不安定さと間違った水準に応じた国内経済運営の制約を、主要国が単独にではなく、協力して新しい政策余地を創る思想でした。中央銀行による制裁の国際協調論は、まさに逆の姿で、それを示しています。
本当に、効果はあるのでしょうか? ルーブルの為替レートが急速に減価し、ロシア中央銀行の金利引き上げ、貿易や金融取引の縮小、そして不況は、短期的、中期的に起きるでしょう。しかし、イランや北朝鮮に対する制裁が、特に効果的であったとは思えません。
ロシア経済は世界市場に対して相互依存が限定的であったかもしれません。資源の輸出が重要な外貨獲得源である点で、それは維持できるでしょう。制裁逃れと第3国への2次的制裁がどこまで有効か、国際通貨・貿易システムや金融市場の在り方が問われます。
制裁の国際協調が他分野におよぶ新しい時代を、中国は注視しているでしょう。また、逆に、アメリカやUKに対する同様の制裁が起きる可能性については、どこまで真剣に考えているのでしょうか?
ロシアと比べてUSの場合、経済の多様性は制裁に対する強靭さを示す条件ですが、巨額の財政赤字、経常収支の赤字があります。中国が巨大なドル建債券を保有していることを、金融市場は恐れるでしょう。他方で、US金融資産は外国に多くの債権者がいるため、USへの制裁（またUSによる金融市場閉鎖）に反対するでしょう。
****
プーチンの戦争を止めるために、ロシア国民の資産や経済を破壊してよいのか? 制裁で損害を受ける民間企業や関係諸国への補償は行われるのか? ロシアは国際経済から切り離されるのか? 中央銀行が経済・金融危機を推進するのは正しいか?
ロシアに対する制裁は、第3国や世界経済に波及します。この制裁が短期間で終わるか、長期化するか、大きな違いがあるでしょう。金融市場や国際商品市場を介して世界経済や主要諸国がどのように反応するか、まだわかりません。しかし、明らかに、ロシアの生産性が低下し、成長率も低下する、と専門家たちは考えます。ブレグジット後のUKのように。
なぜウクライナに対する侵攻には制裁の国際協調が発動できたのか? 世界中に戦争は起きています。しかし、他の侵略や戦争には、これほどの国際的な制裁は実施されません。EUとNATOから、地域安全保障、地域経済・通貨統合の意味が変わるでしょう。国連の諸機関や難民支援、食料援助、国際司法裁判所、平和維持軍など、見直しの機会が現れます。
ロシアの侵攻で始まったウクライナ戦争は、今後の国際秩序をどのように変えるべきか、考えるように求めています。もし、侵略戦争に対するマイナスの国際政策協調も失敗するなら、大国による世界分割が加速します。
制裁発動と解除のルールをどう定めるか? 強力な制裁とその短期化には、交渉と仲裁のメカニズムが必要です。
****
侵略戦争と経済制裁の国際システムは、これから議論を深めるべきことです。
2021年3月、中国の楊潔篪共産党政治局員とアメリカのブリンケン国務長官は、会談で激しくぶつかりました。ウクライナ戦争についても、米中の主張は戦後の国際システムを方向付け、米中協力の機会もあるはずです。
もしかしたら、これはプーチンのアフガニスタン、あるいは、天安門事件なのでしょうか?
******************************