Financial Times May 5 2000

Japan offers plan to avoid another Asian crisis

By Peter Montagnon in Chiang Mai, Thailand

日本政府は、アジア開発銀行の年次総会で、アジア諸国間のスワップ網設定を提案した。1997年のような通貨危機が再発することを防止するためである。

［スワップ網・取決め］Network / Agreement of Swaps

為替相場安定のための国際協調の一環として、自国通貨を短期に相互で預け合う取決め。必要なときは、相互に相手国通貨を引出し、為替市場で介入に使用する。預け合いの条件（総額、どのような場合に使用するか、期間や金利、返済時の為替レート、など）は、当事国間で合意しなければならない。

Japan will on Saturday propose a co-ordinated network of currency swaps with other Asian countries to protect the region against a repeat of the crisis that hit financial markets in 1997.

The plan, to be put forward at a meeting of finance ministers, is a watered-down version of the Asian Monetary Fund suggested by Japan at the height of the crisis.

But unlike that proposal, which soon foundered, Japan's new idea has met a cautiously positive response from delegates at the Asian Development Bank annual meeting in Thailand.

"The Japanese are serious. We need to pursue that further," said Pisit Leeahtam, Thailand's deputy finance minister.

Thailand would be interested in the mobilisation of additional resources provided this did not override or add to the conditions imposed by the International Monetary Fund, he said. But there would still be serious political and technical issues to hammer out.

Among the factors underlying the supportive response to Japan's plan is a fear among Asian officials and economists that the economic recovery is fragile and could be aborted by fresh crisis. There is also a strong feeling of disappointment at the lack of progress on reform of the global international financial system.

"We need to have some kind of defence mechanism," said Il Sakong, chairman of the Korean Institute for Global Economics. "Since not much is expected to be done at the global level, something should be done at the regional level."

Japanese delegates stressed that their proposal would not include arrangements to bypass International Monetary Fund conditions, nor would it involve the creation of a new lending institution. Instead there should simply be agreement allowing Asian countries to borrow from each other through short-term swaps of currency reserves.

"This is in principle possible," said Hubert Neiss, the IMF's former Asia-Pacific head, who is now a senior executive with Deutsche Bank. "It can contribute to co-operation in Asia, but it is complex and will take a lot of time."

Other countries with large reserves, including China and Singapore, would have to contribute for the swap network to make sense, but some of these are expected to prove reluctant.

Japanese delegates said China was "neutral" on the proposal, while Lee Hun-Jai, finance minister of South Korea, which has almost $85bn of reserves, described the discussions as preliminary.

While any agreement may thus be a couple of years away, the proposal has been given some momentum by the fact that it is being launched in the context of talks between the finance ministers of Japan, China, South Korea and the 10 ten member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.

Asean has recently stepped up its contacts with the East Asian governments with a view to improving cooperation in a number of areas including trade policy and as well as finance.

（コメント）

こうした取決めの結果、各国は外貨準備を部分的に共有することになる。アジア域内の経済的な相互依存が深まっていることが、その必要性を増加させる程度に応じて、各国政府はすすんで合意を受け入れる。しかし、他方で外貨準備の豊富な諸国は、それが他国によって間接的に使用されることに不満であろう。そこで外貨準備の豊富な国は、その不足している国に、経済政策などで条件をつける。それゆえ、アジア域内の政策協調・合意が有効でなければ、（また、国際通貨をある程度供給できる日本や、外貨準備の豊富な中国・韓国などが積極的に支持しなければ）こうしたSwap網は機能しない。

各国は、為替レートを切り下げることで、あるいは国内の支出を抑制することで、さらに直接的な統制手段（関税や輸出奨励策、資本流出規制、直接投資の誘致、など）によっても、個別に外貨準備を増やせる。問題は、貿易や金融取引の相互依存が深まるに連れて、こうした対策が競争的に波及し、デフレ的な影響を相互に強め合うことである。各国が自国内の調整過程を回避するために、こうしたデフレ的な影響を考慮せず外貨準備を奪い合うことを防止するには、国際通貨制度の改革（国際的な流動性の供給とインフレ・デフレの回避）と、域内での相互政策監視・調整促進が求められる。前者が進展しない中で、アジア諸国は（他の地域に比べて大きく遅れている）後者の可能性を追求すべきだ、と日本やタイは主張している。しかし（以上の説明で分かるように）、中国や韓国は内容を見て対応する、という慎重な姿勢である。